Forecast models from multiple sources project Zhengzhou's minimum temperature on August 25 near 25–27°C, reflecting typical late-summer monsoon conditions with light easterly flow, high humidity, and scattered showers that limit nocturnal cooling. This consensus underpins the leading 48.5% market-implied probability for 25°C or higher, as historical August lows average around 25°C with rare excursions below 22°C absent strong cold-air advection. The 27.5% odds on 15°C or below capture tail-risk scenarios from model divergence or unexpected frontal passages, while narrower bands around 22–24°C at 25% each reflect residual uncertainty in exact overnight minima. Updated model runs and official observations on the 25th will provide the primary resolution data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Zhengzhou on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Zhengzhou on August 25?
25°C or higher 97%
15°C or below 50%
22°C 50%
23°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
15°C or below
50%
16°C
35%
17°C
35%
18°C
35%
19°C
35%
20°C
35%
21°C
35%
22°C
50%
23°C
50%
24°C
50%
25°C or higher
97%
25°C or higher 97%
15°C or below 50%
22°C 50%
23°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
15°C or below
$0 Vol.
50%
16°C
$0 Vol.
35%
17°C
$0 Vol.
35%
18°C
$0 Vol.
35%
19°C
$0 Vol.
35%
20°C
$0 Vol.
35%
21°C
$0 Vol.
35%
22°C
$0 Vol.
50%
23°C
$0 Vol.
50%
24°C
$0 Vol.
50%
25°C or higher
$0 Vol.
97%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from multiple sources project Zhengzhou's minimum temperature on August 25 near 25–27°C, reflecting typical late-summer monsoon conditions with light easterly flow, high humidity, and scattered showers that limit nocturnal cooling. This consensus underpins the leading 48.5% market-implied probability for 25°C or higher, as historical August lows average around 25°C with rare excursions below 22°C absent strong cold-air advection. The 27.5% odds on 15°C or below capture tail-risk scenarios from model divergence or unexpected frontal passages, while narrower bands around 22–24°C at 25% each reflect residual uncertainty in exact overnight minima. Updated model runs and official observations on the 25th will provide the primary resolution data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhccResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from multiple sources project Zhengzhou's minimum temperature on August 25 near 25–27°C, reflecting typical late-summer monsoon conditions with light easterly flow, high humidity, and scattered showers that limit nocturnal cooling. This consensus underpins the leading 48.5% market-implied probability for 25°C or higher, as historical August lows average around 25°C with rare excursions below 22°C absent strong cold-air advection. The 27.5% odds on 15°C or below capture tail-risk scenarios from model divergence or unexpected frontal passages, while narrower bands around 22–24°C at 25% each reflect residual uncertainty in exact overnight minima. Updated model runs and official observations on the 25th will provide the primary resolution data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhccResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from multiple sources project Zhengzhou's minimum temperature on August 25 near 25–27°C, reflecting typical late-summer monsoon conditions with light easterly flow, high humidity, and scattered showers that limit nocturnal cooling. This consensus underpins the leading 48.5% market-implied probability for 25°C or higher, as historical August lows average around 25°C with rare excursions below 22°C absent strong cold-air advection. The 27.5% odds on 15°C or below capture tail-risk scenarios from model divergence or unexpected frontal passages, while narrower bands around 22–24°C at 25% each reflect residual uncertainty in exact overnight minima. Updated model runs and official observations on the 25th will provide the primary resolution data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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