Recent official forecasts from the Chengdu Meteorological Observatory and global models indicate a peak temperature of 33–34°C on August 26, driven by the post-fu transition with increasing cloud cover, scattered afternoon thunderstorms, and higher humidity moderating daytime heating after the end of the "dog days." These conditions favor convective activity that caps maximums in the Sichuan Basin, consistent with historical late-August patterns of 32–35°C. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 34–36°C because ensemble variability in storm timing and intensity creates genuine uncertainty in the precise daily high, with new NWP runs and local observations expected to sharpen resolution criteria before the 26th.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on August 26?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 26?
35°C 25%
34°C 19%
36°C 19%
37°C or higher 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
27°C or below
4%
28°C
4%
29°C
4%
30°C
3%
31°C
8%
32°C
8%
33°C
12%
34°C
19%
35°C
25%
36°C
19%
37°C or higher
15%
35°C 25%
34°C 19%
36°C 19%
37°C or higher 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
27°C or below
$0 Vol.
4%
28°C
$5 Vol.
4%
29°C
$5 Vol.
4%
30°C
$25 Vol.
3%
31°C
$140 Vol.
8%
32°C
$25 Vol.
8%
33°C
$0 Vol.
12%
34°C
$7 Vol.
19%
35°C
$82 Vol.
25%
36°C
$0 Vol.
19%
37°C or higher
$0 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from the Chengdu Meteorological Observatory and global models indicate a peak temperature of 33–34°C on August 26, driven by the post-fu transition with increasing cloud cover, scattered afternoon thunderstorms, and higher humidity moderating daytime heating after the end of the "dog days." These conditions favor convective activity that caps maximums in the Sichuan Basin, consistent with historical late-August patterns of 32–35°C. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 34–36°C because ensemble variability in storm timing and intensity creates genuine uncertainty in the precise daily high, with new NWP runs and local observations expected to sharpen resolution criteria before the 26th.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$289End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from the Chengdu Meteorological Observatory and global models indicate a peak temperature of 33–34°C on August 26, driven by the post-fu transition with increasing cloud cover, scattered afternoon thunderstorms, and higher humidity moderating daytime heating after the end of the "dog days." These conditions favor convective activity that caps maximums in the Sichuan Basin, consistent with historical late-August patterns of 32–35°C. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 34–36°C because ensemble variability in storm timing and intensity creates genuine uncertainty in the precise daily high, with new NWP runs and local observations expected to sharpen resolution criteria before the 26th.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$289End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from the Chengdu Meteorological Observatory and global models indicate a peak temperature of 33–34°C on August 26, driven by the post-fu transition with increasing cloud cover, scattered afternoon thunderstorms, and higher humidity moderating daytime heating after the end of the "dog days." These conditions favor convective activity that caps maximums in the Sichuan Basin, consistent with historical late-August patterns of 32–35°C. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 34–36°C because ensemble variability in storm timing and intensity creates genuine uncertainty in the precise daily high, with new NWP runs and local observations expected to sharpen resolution criteria before the 26th.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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