The strong 93.7% market-implied odds against a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 stem primarily from the extreme rarity of such events, which demand massive, simultaneous ruptures along subduction zone faults capable of releasing centuries of accumulated strain. No M9+ quakes have occurred since the 2011 Tohoku event, and 2026 seismic activity has remained capped at M7.8 despite multiple events above M7. USGS monitoring confirms that short-term forecasts for specific great earthquakes remain impossible, with probabilities instead derived from long-term historical rates and fault mechanics. While continuous global seismic networks could detect accelerating foreshock sequences or unusual strain, realistic challenges to the consensus would require an unprecedented, undetected buildup in a high-risk zone like the Cascadia or Japan Trench within the remaining months.