Scientific consensus holds that a magnitude 10.0 earthquake is physically impossible on Earth because it would require an unrealistically long continuous fault rupture spanning much of the planet, far exceeding known subduction zones or tectonic boundaries. The largest recorded event remains the 9.5 Valdivia quake in Chile in 1960, with official USGS assessments confirming no fault system can generate magnitude 10 or higher. With only about 16 months until 2027, the near-term probability stays negligible absent unprecedented global seismic restructuring. Trader sentiment at 99.4% for "No" reflects this established geophysical limit, though rare model revisions or measurement anomalies could theoretically shift outcomes if new data emerged.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
<1% chance
$792,663 Vol.
$792,663 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<1% chance
$792,663 Vol.
$792,663 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Scientific consensus holds that a magnitude 10.0 earthquake is physically impossible on Earth because it would require an unrealistically long continuous fault rupture spanning much of the planet, far exceeding known subduction zones or tectonic boundaries. The largest recorded event remains the 9.5 Valdivia quake in Chile in 1960, with official USGS assessments confirming no fault system can generate magnitude 10 or higher. With only about 16 months until 2027, the near-term probability stays negligible absent unprecedented global seismic restructuring. Trader sentiment at 99.4% for "No" reflects this established geophysical limit, though rare model revisions or measurement anomalies could theoretically shift outcomes if new data emerged.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
Volume
$792,663End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Scientific consensus holds that a magnitude 10.0 earthquake is physically impossible on Earth because it would require an unrealistically long continuous fault rupture spanning much of the planet, far exceeding known subduction zones or tectonic boundaries. The largest recorded event remains the 9.5 Valdivia quake in Chile in 1960, with official USGS assessments confirming no fault system can generate magnitude 10 or higher. With only about 16 months until 2027, the near-term probability stays negligible absent unprecedented global seismic restructuring. Trader sentiment at 99.4% for "No" reflects this established geophysical limit, though rare model revisions or measurement anomalies could theoretically shift outcomes if new data emerged.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$792,663End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Scientific consensus holds that a magnitude 10.0 earthquake is physically impossible on Earth because it would require an unrealistically long continuous fault rupture spanning much of the planet, far exceeding known subduction zones or tectonic boundaries. The largest recorded event remains the 9.5 Valdivia quake in Chile in 1960, with official USGS assessments confirming no fault system can generate magnitude 10 or higher. With only about 16 months until 2027, the near-term probability stays negligible absent unprecedented global seismic restructuring. Trader sentiment at 99.4% for "No" reflects this established geophysical limit, though rare model revisions or measurement anomalies could theoretically shift outcomes if new data emerged.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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