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Aug 15, 2026

Breaking News

See the polymarkets that moved the most in the last 24 hours

1
icon for Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31?

Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31?

99%
73%
2
icon for Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?

Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?

10%
53%
3
icon for Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?

Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?

75%
35%
4
icon for No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

74%
29%
5
icon for Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?

Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1490?

32%
24%
6
icon for Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?

Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?

18%
21%
7
icon for Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?

Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?

7%
20%
8
icon for Will the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?

Will the next Google Gemini Flash model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?

99%
19%
9
icon for Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?

Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?

44%
18%
10
icon for Will Amir Ohana win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?

Will Amir Ohana win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?

64%
17%
11
icon for Will the Serbian National Assembly be dissolved by August 31?

Will the Serbian National Assembly be dissolved by August 31?

25%
14%
12
icon for US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

40%
13%
13
icon for Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?

Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?

34%
12%
14
icon for Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?

Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?

67%
11%
15
icon for Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in August?

Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in August?

60%
10%
16
icon for Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between seven and nine nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?

Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between seven and nine nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?

35%
10%
17
icon for Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?

67%
9%
18
icon for Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31?

Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31?

47%
8%
19
icon for US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

16%
8%
20
icon for Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?

Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?

64%
8%
21
icon for Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?

Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?

36%
8%
22
icon for NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?

NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?

42%
7%
23
icon for US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?

31%
7%
24
icon for Will the Bank of Israel cut by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?

Will the Bank of Israel cut by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?

26%
7%
25
icon for Will Ben Butler be the Republican nominee for FL-09?

Will Ben Butler be the Republican nominee for FL-09?

27%
6%