Persistent warm sea surface temperatures lingering after the 2023–2025 El Niño, alongside the underlying anthropogenic trend of roughly 0.2 °C per decade, underpin the market’s clustering around 1.25–1.29 °C and >1.29 °C outcomes for August 2026. Latest NOAA and ECMWF model runs indicate limited cooling from a possible weak La Niña transition, while Arctic amplification and reduced aerosol forcing add upward pressure. Short-term variability in tropical convection and Indian Ocean dipole strength introduces genuine forecast spread, with resolution depending on final global mean estimates from agencies such as NASA GISS and Copernicus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
>1.29ºC 43%
1.25–1.29ºC 34%
1.20–1.24ºC 20%
1.15–1.19ºC 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 1, 2026
<1.10ºC
4%
1.10–1.14ºC
2%
1.15–1.19ºC
8%
1.20–1.24ºC
20%
1.25–1.29ºC
34%
>1.29ºC
43%
>1.29ºC 43%
1.25–1.29ºC 34%
1.20–1.24ºC 20%
1.15–1.19ºC 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 1, 2026
<1.10ºC
$344 Vol.
4%
1.10–1.14ºC
$396 Vol.
2%
1.15–1.19ºC
$333 Vol.
8%
1.20–1.24ºC
$82 Vol.
20%
1.25–1.29ºC
$201 Vol.
34%
>1.29ºC
$255 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Persistent warm sea surface temperatures lingering after the 2023–2025 El Niño, alongside the underlying anthropogenic trend of roughly 0.2 °C per decade, underpin the market’s clustering around 1.25–1.29 °C and >1.29 °C outcomes for August 2026. Latest NOAA and ECMWF model runs indicate limited cooling from a possible weak La Niña transition, while Arctic amplification and reduced aerosol forcing add upward pressure. Short-term variability in tropical convection and Indian Ocean dipole strength introduces genuine forecast spread, with resolution depending on final global mean estimates from agencies such as NASA GISS and Copernicus.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$1,611End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Persistent warm sea surface temperatures lingering after the 2023–2025 El Niño, alongside the underlying anthropogenic trend of roughly 0.2 °C per decade, underpin the market’s clustering around 1.25–1.29 °C and >1.29 °C outcomes for August 2026. Latest NOAA and ECMWF model runs indicate limited cooling from a possible weak La Niña transition, while Arctic amplification and reduced aerosol forcing add upward pressure. Short-term variability in tropical convection and Indian Ocean dipole strength introduces genuine forecast spread, with resolution depending on final global mean estimates from agencies such as NASA GISS and Copernicus.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$1,611End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent warm sea surface temperatures lingering after the 2023–2025 El Niño, alongside the underlying anthropogenic trend of roughly 0.2 °C per decade, underpin the market’s clustering around 1.25–1.29 °C and >1.29 °C outcomes for August 2026. Latest NOAA and ECMWF model runs indicate limited cooling from a possible weak La Niña transition, while Arctic amplification and reduced aerosol forcing add upward pressure. Short-term variability in tropical convection and Indian Ocean dipole strength introduces genuine forecast spread, with resolution depending on final global mean estimates from agencies such as NASA GISS and Copernicus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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