Global earthquake catalogs from the USGS indicate that magnitude 6.5+ events occur at an average rate supporting zero or one occurrence in any given week, aligning with the market's leading implied probabilities. Recent late-July activity, including a 6.8 near Uto, Japan, and a 7.3 offshore Mexico, reflects normal background seismicity without evidence of clustering or quiescence that would shift short-term odds. Tectonic plate boundaries drive these events unpredictably, with no reliable precursors for the coming week; traders weigh historical frequency distributions against the absence of foreshock swarms or aftershock sequences in active zones. Upcoming USGS weekly summaries may refine sentiment if new data emerges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?
How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?
0 47%
1 31%
2 18%
3 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 10, 2026
0
47%
1
31%
2
18%
3
5%
4
2%
5
2%
>5
1%
0 47%
1 31%
2 18%
3 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 10, 2026
0
$1,060 Vol.
47%
1
$205 Vol.
31%
2
$92 Vol.
18%
3
$77 Vol.
5%
4
$106 Vol.
2%
5
$50 Vol.
2%
>5
$91 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global earthquake catalogs from the USGS indicate that magnitude 6.5+ events occur at an average rate supporting zero or one occurrence in any given week, aligning with the market's leading implied probabilities. Recent late-July activity, including a 6.8 near Uto, Japan, and a 7.3 offshore Mexico, reflects normal background seismicity without evidence of clustering or quiescence that would shift short-term odds. Tectonic plate boundaries drive these events unpredictably, with no reliable precursors for the coming week; traders weigh historical frequency distributions against the absence of foreshock swarms or aftershock sequences in active zones. Upcoming USGS weekly summaries may refine sentiment if new data emerges.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 12:45 PM ET
Volume
$1,613End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 12:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global earthquake catalogs from the USGS indicate that magnitude 6.5+ events occur at an average rate supporting zero or one occurrence in any given week, aligning with the market's leading implied probabilities. Recent late-July activity, including a 6.8 near Uto, Japan, and a 7.3 offshore Mexico, reflects normal background seismicity without evidence of clustering or quiescence that would shift short-term odds. Tectonic plate boundaries drive these events unpredictably, with no reliable precursors for the coming week; traders weigh historical frequency distributions against the absence of foreshock swarms or aftershock sequences in active zones. Upcoming USGS weekly summaries may refine sentiment if new data emerges.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$1,613End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 12:45 PM ETResolution Source
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Global earthquake catalogs from the USGS indicate that magnitude 6.5+ events occur at an average rate supporting zero or one occurrence in any given week, aligning with the market's leading implied probabilities. Recent late-July activity, including a 6.8 near Uto, Japan, and a 7.3 offshore Mexico, reflects normal background seismicity without evidence of clustering or quiescence that would shift short-term odds. Tectonic plate boundaries drive these events unpredictably, with no reliable precursors for the coming week; traders weigh historical frequency distributions against the absence of foreshock swarms or aftershock sequences in active zones. Upcoming USGS weekly summaries may refine sentiment if new data emerges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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