Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 SST anomalies recently exceeding +2.0°C and forecasts for a very strong event through late 2026, represent the dominant driver shaping trader sentiment for Hong Kong's August rainfall. This phase of ENSO typically weakens the East Asian summer monsoon while altering tropical cyclone tracks and intensity, introducing substantial variability around the long-term August mean of roughly 450 mm. Official outlooks emphasize uncertainty in short-term monsoon bursts and any late-month typhoon influences, which could push totals into the leading 700 mm+ bin or keep them near the 425–550 mm cluster where multiple outcomes cluster around 24–25% implied probability. Updated seasonal model runs and early-month observations will provide key signals for resolution thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPrecipitation in Hong Kong in August?
Precipitation in Hong Kong in August?
700mm+ 65%
475-500mm 34%
650-700mm 31%
<425mm 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<425mm
26%
425-450mm
24%
450-475mm
18%
475-500mm
34%
500-525mm
21%
525-550mm
18%
550-600mm
18%
600-650mm
19%
650-700mm
31%
700mm+
51%
700mm+ 65%
475-500mm 34%
650-700mm 31%
<425mm 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<425mm
$87 Vol.
26%
425-450mm
$66 Vol.
24%
450-475mm
$83 Vol.
18%
475-500mm
$66 Vol.
34%
500-525mm
$69 Vol.
21%
525-550mm
$98 Vol.
18%
550-600mm
$80 Vol.
18%
600-650mm
$66 Vol.
19%
650-700mm
$40 Vol.
31%
700mm+
$153 Vol.
51%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 SST anomalies recently exceeding +2.0°C and forecasts for a very strong event through late 2026, represent the dominant driver shaping trader sentiment for Hong Kong's August rainfall. This phase of ENSO typically weakens the East Asian summer monsoon while altering tropical cyclone tracks and intensity, introducing substantial variability around the long-term August mean of roughly 450 mm. Official outlooks emphasize uncertainty in short-term monsoon bursts and any late-month typhoon influences, which could push totals into the leading 700 mm+ bin or keep them near the 425–550 mm cluster where multiple outcomes cluster around 24–25% implied probability. Updated seasonal model runs and early-month observations will provide key signals for resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ET
Volume
$809End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 SST anomalies recently exceeding +2.0°C and forecasts for a very strong event through late 2026, represent the dominant driver shaping trader sentiment for Hong Kong's August rainfall. This phase of ENSO typically weakens the East Asian summer monsoon while altering tropical cyclone tracks and intensity, introducing substantial variability around the long-term August mean of roughly 450 mm. Official outlooks emphasize uncertainty in short-term monsoon bursts and any late-month typhoon influences, which could push totals into the leading 700 mm+ bin or keep them near the 425–550 mm cluster where multiple outcomes cluster around 24–25% implied probability. Updated seasonal model runs and early-month observations will provide key signals for resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between August 1 and August 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in August 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$809End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 SST anomalies recently exceeding +2.0°C and forecasts for a very strong event through late 2026, represent the dominant driver shaping trader sentiment for Hong Kong's August rainfall. This phase of ENSO typically weakens the East Asian summer monsoon while altering tropical cyclone tracks and intensity, introducing substantial variability around the long-term August mean of roughly 450 mm. Official outlooks emphasize uncertainty in short-term monsoon bursts and any late-month typhoon influences, which could push totals into the leading 700 mm+ bin or keep them near the 425–550 mm cluster where multiple outcomes cluster around 24–25% implied probability. Updated seasonal model runs and early-month observations will provide key signals for resolution thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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