SpaceX's Starship program has completed only two flights in 2026 so far—Flights 12 and 13 in May and July—both using upgraded V3 vehicles with Raptor 3 engines and achieving partial success including Starlink V3 satellite deployment on the most recent test. Trader consensus around 5-6 total space-reaching launches for the year reflects expectations of accelerated cadence through Flight 14 (targeted for September onward as the first orbital attempt with potential tower catch) and subsequent missions, supported by ongoing production scaling at Starbase. Key constraints include FAA regulatory approvals for higher flight rates, vehicle reliability improvements following prior failures, and the shift from suborbital tests to sustained orbital operations with payload deployment. Recent earnings commentary from Elon Musk highlighted rapid cadence growth goals, yet historical timelines and approval delays continue to cap near-term volume at modest double-digit totals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
5-6 54%
<5 33%
7-8 6.4%
9-10 2.9%
$493,114 Vol.
$493,114 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
<5
33%
5-6
54%
7-8
6%
9-10
3%
11-12
2%
13-14
<1%
15-16
<1%
>16
1%
5-6 54%
<5 33%
7-8 6.4%
9-10 2.9%
$493,114 Vol.
$493,114 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
<5
$99,154 Vol.
33%
5-6
$113,820 Vol.
54%
7-8
$158,488 Vol.
6%
9-10
$61,502 Vol.
3%
11-12
$8,397 Vol.
2%
13-14
$9,172 Vol.
<1%
15-16
$30,073 Vol.
<1%
>16
$12,509 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX's Starship program has completed only two flights in 2026 so far—Flights 12 and 13 in May and July—both using upgraded V3 vehicles with Raptor 3 engines and achieving partial success including Starlink V3 satellite deployment on the most recent test. Trader consensus around 5-6 total space-reaching launches for the year reflects expectations of accelerated cadence through Flight 14 (targeted for September onward as the first orbital attempt with potential tower catch) and subsequent missions, supported by ongoing production scaling at Starbase. Key constraints include FAA regulatory approvals for higher flight rates, vehicle reliability improvements following prior failures, and the shift from suborbital tests to sustained orbital operations with payload deployment. Recent earnings commentary from Elon Musk highlighted rapid cadence growth goals, yet historical timelines and approval delays continue to cap near-term volume at modest double-digit totals.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Volume
$493,114End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX's Starship program has completed only two flights in 2026 so far—Flights 12 and 13 in May and July—both using upgraded V3 vehicles with Raptor 3 engines and achieving partial success including Starlink V3 satellite deployment on the most recent test. Trader consensus around 5-6 total space-reaching launches for the year reflects expectations of accelerated cadence through Flight 14 (targeted for September onward as the first orbital attempt with potential tower catch) and subsequent missions, supported by ongoing production scaling at Starbase. Key constraints include FAA regulatory approvals for higher flight rates, vehicle reliability improvements following prior failures, and the shift from suborbital tests to sustained orbital operations with payload deployment. Recent earnings commentary from Elon Musk highlighted rapid cadence growth goals, yet historical timelines and approval delays continue to cap near-term volume at modest double-digit totals.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$493,114End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX's Starship program has completed only two flights in 2026 so far—Flights 12 and 13 in May and July—both using upgraded V3 vehicles with Raptor 3 engines and achieving partial success including Starlink V3 satellite deployment on the most recent test. Trader consensus around 5-6 total space-reaching launches for the year reflects expectations of accelerated cadence through Flight 14 (targeted for September onward as the first orbital attempt with potential tower catch) and subsequent missions, supported by ongoing production scaling at Starbase. Key constraints include FAA regulatory approvals for higher flight rates, vehicle reliability improvements following prior failures, and the shift from suborbital tests to sustained orbital operations with payload deployment. Recent earnings commentary from Elon Musk highlighted rapid cadence growth goals, yet historical timelines and approval delays continue to cap near-term volume at modest double-digit totals.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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