SpaceX Starship's path to full reusability before 2027 faces significant hurdles, as reflected in the 63% market-implied probability for "No." The May 2026 debut of Version 3 hardware delivered mixed results, with engine relight failures on both booster and upper stage undermining controlled returns critical for reuse. While the Super Heavy booster achieved initial catches and limited reflights in 2025, the Starship upper stage continues to encounter reentry, heat shield, and propulsion challenges during integrated tests. These setbacks align with SpaceX's own disclosures in regulatory filings highlighting risks to rapid turnaround and high-cadence operations. Key upcoming catalysts include propellant transfer demonstrations and additional V3 flights targeted for later in 2026, which could clarify whether operational full-stack reusability materializes this year.