**Grok 5 remains unreleased as of early September 2026, with trader odds reflecting multiple slipped timelines and xAI’s shift toward rapid incremental updates.** Original Q1 and Q2 2026 targets passed without a launch after confirmation of training in the January 2026 Series E round; the model, positioned as a 6–10 trillion parameter multimodal system trained partly on SpaceX data and Cursor workflows via the Colossus 2 cluster, has given way to Grok 4.5 (July) and 4.6 (August) releases that closed gaps on coding and agentic benchmarks. Recent Elon Musk statements highlight Grok 4.7 arriving soon while framing Grok 5 as the larger generational step, with market-implied medians now clustering around mid-to-late December. Key swing factors include training completion on expanded infrastructure, competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic frontier models, and any official benchmarks or announcements that could accelerate or further delay the flagship.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$10,941 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
October 31
10%
November 30
33%
December 31
64%
$10,941 Vol.
October 31
$1,847 Vol.
10%
November 30
$530 Vol.
33%
December 31
$3,487 Vol.
64%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.**Grok 5 remains unreleased as of early September 2026, with trader odds reflecting multiple slipped timelines and xAI’s shift toward rapid incremental updates.** Original Q1 and Q2 2026 targets passed without a launch after confirmation of training in the January 2026 Series E round; the model, positioned as a 6–10 trillion parameter multimodal system trained partly on SpaceX data and Cursor workflows via the Colossus 2 cluster, has given way to Grok 4.5 (July) and 4.6 (August) releases that closed gaps on coding and agentic benchmarks. Recent Elon Musk statements highlight Grok 4.7 arriving soon while framing Grok 5 as the larger generational step, with market-implied medians now clustering around mid-to-late December. Key swing factors include training completion on expanded infrastructure, competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic frontier models, and any official benchmarks or announcements that could accelerate or further delay the flagship.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$10,941End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.**Grok 5 remains unreleased as of early September 2026, with trader odds reflecting multiple slipped timelines and xAI’s shift toward rapid incremental updates.** Original Q1 and Q2 2026 targets passed without a launch after confirmation of training in the January 2026 Series E round; the model, positioned as a 6–10 trillion parameter multimodal system trained partly on SpaceX data and Cursor workflows via the Colossus 2 cluster, has given way to Grok 4.5 (July) and 4.6 (August) releases that closed gaps on coding and agentic benchmarks. Recent Elon Musk statements highlight Grok 4.7 arriving soon while framing Grok 5 as the larger generational step, with market-implied medians now clustering around mid-to-late December. Key swing factors include training completion on expanded infrastructure, competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic frontier models, and any official benchmarks or announcements that could accelerate or further delay the flagship.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$10,941End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Grok 5 remains unreleased as of early September 2026, with trader odds reflecting multiple slipped timelines and xAI’s shift toward rapid incremental updates.** Original Q1 and Q2 2026 targets passed without a launch after confirmation of training in the January 2026 Series E round; the model, positioned as a 6–10 trillion parameter multimodal system trained partly on SpaceX data and Cursor workflows via the Colossus 2 cluster, has given way to Grok 4.5 (July) and 4.6 (August) releases that closed gaps on coding and agentic benchmarks. Recent Elon Musk statements highlight Grok 4.7 arriving soon while framing Grok 5 as the larger generational step, with market-implied medians now clustering around mid-to-late December. Key swing factors include training completion on expanded infrastructure, competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic frontier models, and any official benchmarks or announcements that could accelerate or further delay the flagship.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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