Anthropic leads trader sentiment for the best AI model by end of October due to consistent top rankings on key benchmarks, including SWE-Bench and coding-focused evaluations where recent Claude Opus and Sonnet iterations outperform GPT-5.5 variants and Gemini 3 Pro in complex, multi-file reasoning and agentic workflows. This edge stems from Anthropic's emphasis on extended context windows and reliable performance in enterprise tasks, widening the gap over OpenAI and Google in independent leaderboards as of mid-2026. Competitors like DeepSeek and Alibaba trail on raw capability despite lower costs, while Meta and others lag further behind. Upcoming model refreshes or major benchmark updates through October could shift the tight race among frontier labs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 69%
StepFun 22%
DeepSeek 21%
MiniMax 20%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
69%
StepFun
22%
DeepSeek
21%
MiniMax
20%
Baidu
19%
16%
Alibaba
15%
Amazon
15%
Mistral
15%
Nvidia
14%
Meituan
14%
OpenAI
13%
Microsoft
12%
Thinky
9%
Moonshot
9%
Z.ai
5%
Meta
13%
Xiaomi
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
ByteDance
1%
Tencent
1%
Anthropic 69%
StepFun 22%
DeepSeek 21%
MiniMax 20%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$57 Vol.
69%
StepFun
$87 Vol.
22%
DeepSeek
$44 Vol.
21%
MiniMax
$87 Vol.
20%
Baidu
$107 Vol.
19%
$44 Vol.
16%
Alibaba
$44 Vol.
15%
Amazon
$44 Vol.
15%
Mistral
$44 Vol.
15%
Nvidia
$44 Vol.
14%
Meituan
$44 Vol.
14%
OpenAI
$49 Vol.
13%
Microsoft
$90 Vol.
12%
Thinky
$44 Vol.
9%
Moonshot
$107 Vol.
9%
Z.ai
$87 Vol.
5%
Meta
$87 Vol.
13%
Xiaomi
$87 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$87 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$87 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$87 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic leads trader sentiment for the best AI model by end of October due to consistent top rankings on key benchmarks, including SWE-Bench and coding-focused evaluations where recent Claude Opus and Sonnet iterations outperform GPT-5.5 variants and Gemini 3 Pro in complex, multi-file reasoning and agentic workflows. This edge stems from Anthropic's emphasis on extended context windows and reliable performance in enterprise tasks, widening the gap over OpenAI and Google in independent leaderboards as of mid-2026. Competitors like DeepSeek and Alibaba trail on raw capability despite lower costs, while Meta and others lag further behind. Upcoming model refreshes or major benchmark updates through October could shift the tight race among frontier labs.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volume
$1,461End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic leads trader sentiment for the best AI model by end of October due to consistent top rankings on key benchmarks, including SWE-Bench and coding-focused evaluations where recent Claude Opus and Sonnet iterations outperform GPT-5.5 variants and Gemini 3 Pro in complex, multi-file reasoning and agentic workflows. This edge stems from Anthropic's emphasis on extended context windows and reliable performance in enterprise tasks, widening the gap over OpenAI and Google in independent leaderboards as of mid-2026. Competitors like DeepSeek and Alibaba trail on raw capability despite lower costs, while Meta and others lag further behind. Upcoming model refreshes or major benchmark updates through October could shift the tight race among frontier labs.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$1,461End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic leads trader sentiment for the best AI model by end of October due to consistent top rankings on key benchmarks, including SWE-Bench and coding-focused evaluations where recent Claude Opus and Sonnet iterations outperform GPT-5.5 variants and Gemini 3 Pro in complex, multi-file reasoning and agentic workflows. This edge stems from Anthropic's emphasis on extended context windows and reliable performance in enterprise tasks, widening the gap over OpenAI and Google in independent leaderboards as of mid-2026. Competitors like DeepSeek and Alibaba trail on raw capability despite lower costs, while Meta and others lag further behind. Upcoming model refreshes or major benchmark updates through October could shift the tight race among frontier labs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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