Traders assign only an 8.5% implied probability that OpenAI will announce AGI before 2027 because the company’s leadership and recent model releases continue to describe current systems as narrow AI that lack robust reasoning, long-term planning, and real-world agency. Incremental gains in GPT-series capabilities and internal benchmarks have not crossed credible AGI thresholds, and public timelines emphasize multi-year safety and scaling work. A sudden declaration would require an unprecedented internal leap or redefinition of AGI that contradicts OpenAI’s own prior statements. While a surprise breakthrough or reclassification remains theoretically possible in the final months of 2026, historical AI progress and competitive transparency make such an outcome unlikely.