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Tech·AI

Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)

icon for Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
Tech·AI

Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)

Jul 31

Aug 31

Sep 30

Jul 31

Aug 31

Sep 30

Xiaomi 65%

Anthropic 50%

Google 37%

Moonshot 37%

Polymarket
NEW

Xiaomi 65%

Anthropic 50%

Google 37%

Moonshot 37%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Xiaomi

Xiaomi

$45 Vol.

65%

icon for Anthropic

Anthropic

$45 Vol.

50%

icon for Google

Google

$45 Vol.

37%

icon for Moonshot

Moonshot

$45 Vol.

37%

icon for Meta

Meta

$45 Vol.

36%

icon for Mistral

Mistral

$45 Vol.

33%

icon for Microsoft

Microsoft

$45 Vol.

33%

icon for Nvidia

Nvidia

$45 Vol.

31%

icon for Alibaba

Alibaba

$45 Vol.

29%

icon for SpaceXAI

SpaceXAI

$45 Vol.

29%

icon for Z.ai

Z.ai

$45 Vol.

29%

icon for Baidu

Baidu

$45 Vol.

29%

icon for DeepSeek

DeepSeek

$45 Vol.

29%

icon for MiniMax

MiniMax

$45 Vol.

29%

icon for Thinky

Thinky

$45 Vol.

29%

icon for Meituan

Meituan

$45 Vol.

29%

icon for Amazon

Amazon

$45 Vol.

29%

icon for Tencent

Tencent

$45 Vol.

29%

icon for OpenAI

OpenAI

$45 Vol.

28%

icon for ByteDance

ByteDance

$45 Vol.

29%

icon for StepFun

StepFun

$45 Vol.

33%

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic holds a narrow edge in trader sentiment for the end-of-September 2026 #1 AI model under Style Control On, reflecting its recent benchmark dominance with Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 topping composite quality and coding metrics like SWE-Bench. These models emphasize substantive reasoning over formatting, aligning directly with the resolution criteria that neutralize presentation advantages. Close competition from OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-5.5 Pro, plus Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro in accuracy and reasoning tasks, keeps multiple outcomes near even odds. Key swing factors include any September frontier releases, continued leaderboard shifts on LMSYS Arena, and how well each lab sustains gains in instruction-following and agentic capabilities amid rapid iteration cycles.

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$937
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic holds a narrow edge in trader sentiment for the end-of-September 2026 #1 AI model under Style Control On, reflecting its recent benchmark dominance with Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.8 topping composite quality and coding metrics like SWE-Bench. These models emphasize substantive reasoning over formatting, aligning directly with the resolution criteria that neutralize presentation advantages. Close competition from OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and GPT-5.5 Pro, plus Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro in accuracy and reasoning tasks, keeps multiple outcomes near even odds. Key swing factors include any September frontier releases, continued leaderboard shifts on LMSYS Arena, and how well each lab sustains gains in instruction-following and agentic capabilities amid rapid iteration cycles.

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$937
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 21 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Anthropic" at 50%, followed by "Google" at 37%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 50¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 20, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)," browse the 21 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)" is "Anthropic" at 50%, meaning the market assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Google" at 37%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.