Cool southerly airflow and polar air intrusions are keeping Wellington’s daytime maxima suppressed near 10–12 °C on August 18, aligning with MetService forecasts and explaining the overwhelming 99.3% market-implied probability on 12 °C. August climatology supports typical highs around 12 °C under a temperate maritime regime, but persistent showery southwesterlies and limited insolation from marine air masses have produced recent analogs resolving at 10–11 °C. Model consensus indicates minimal warming potential before the next frontal passage, with official Kelburn and airport observations determining resolution. A shift toward 13 °C or higher would require clearer skies or delayed shower timing to enhance solar heating, while colder intrusions could push readings lower.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 18?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 18?
12°C 99.4%
13°C <1%
6°C or below <1%
7°C <1%
NEW
$88,133 Vol.
NEW
$88,133 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
99%
13°C
1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C or higher
<1%
12°C 99.4%
13°C <1%
6°C or below <1%
7°C <1%
NEW
$88,133 Vol.
NEW
$88,133 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
6°C or below
$339 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$850 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$1,498 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$3,896 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$11,605 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$32,898 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$18,745 Vol.
99%
13°C
$7,680 Vol.
1%
14°C
$4,732 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$4,105 Vol.
<1%
16°C or higher
$1,836 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Cool southerly airflow and polar air intrusions are keeping Wellington’s daytime maxima suppressed near 10–12 °C on August 18, aligning with MetService forecasts and explaining the overwhelming 99.3% market-implied probability on 12 °C. August climatology supports typical highs around 12 °C under a temperate maritime regime, but persistent showery southwesterlies and limited insolation from marine air masses have produced recent analogs resolving at 10–11 °C. Model consensus indicates minimal warming potential before the next frontal passage, with official Kelburn and airport observations determining resolution. A shift toward 13 °C or higher would require clearer skies or delayed shower timing to enhance solar heating, while colder intrusions could push readings lower.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$88,133End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Cool southerly airflow and polar air intrusions are keeping Wellington’s daytime maxima suppressed near 10–12 °C on August 18, aligning with MetService forecasts and explaining the overwhelming 99.3% market-implied probability on 12 °C. August climatology supports typical highs around 12 °C under a temperate maritime regime, but persistent showery southwesterlies and limited insolation from marine air masses have produced recent analogs resolving at 10–11 °C. Model consensus indicates minimal warming potential before the next frontal passage, with official Kelburn and airport observations determining resolution. A shift toward 13 °C or higher would require clearer skies or delayed shower timing to enhance solar heating, while colder intrusions could push readings lower.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$88,133End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Cool southerly airflow and polar air intrusions are keeping Wellington’s daytime maxima suppressed near 10–12 °C on August 18, aligning with MetService forecasts and explaining the overwhelming 99.3% market-implied probability on 12 °C. August climatology supports typical highs around 12 °C under a temperate maritime regime, but persistent showery southwesterlies and limited insolation from marine air masses have produced recent analogs resolving at 10–11 °C. Model consensus indicates minimal warming potential before the next frontal passage, with official Kelburn and airport observations determining resolution. A shift toward 13 °C or higher would require clearer skies or delayed shower timing to enhance solar heating, while colder intrusions could push readings lower.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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