Traders see the tightest odds clustered on 86-89°F for New York City’s August 19 high because National Weather Service ensemble guidance shows solutions tightly grouped around an upper-80s peak under strengthening high pressure and modest southerly flow. Subtle model differences in afternoon cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and dew-point advection create the narrow spread between the two leading bins, while historical mid-August normals near 83°F underscore the modest warm anomaly now priced in. Official resolution will use the Central Park maximum, with the next model cycle and any late-day observational adjustments likely to refine probabilities before the period closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on August 19?
Highest temperature in NYC on August 19?
88-89°F 41%
86-87°F 34%
90-91°F 14%
84-85°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 19, 2026
75°F or below
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
4%
84-85°F
10%
86-87°F
34%
88-89°F
41%
90-91°F
14%
92-93°F
6%
94°F or higher
3%
88-89°F 41%
86-87°F 34%
90-91°F 14%
84-85°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 19, 2026
75°F or below
$10 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$10 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$5 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$300 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$1 Vol.
4%
84-85°F
$13 Vol.
10%
86-87°F
$29 Vol.
34%
88-89°F
$81 Vol.
41%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
14%
92-93°F
$171 Vol.
6%
94°F or higher
$5 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see the tightest odds clustered on 86-89°F for New York City’s August 19 high because National Weather Service ensemble guidance shows solutions tightly grouped around an upper-80s peak under strengthening high pressure and modest southerly flow. Subtle model differences in afternoon cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and dew-point advection create the narrow spread between the two leading bins, while historical mid-August normals near 83°F underscore the modest warm anomaly now priced in. Official resolution will use the Central Park maximum, with the next model cycle and any late-day observational adjustments likely to refine probabilities before the period closes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 9:56 PM ET
Volume
$625End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 9:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see the tightest odds clustered on 86-89°F for New York City’s August 19 high because National Weather Service ensemble guidance shows solutions tightly grouped around an upper-80s peak under strengthening high pressure and modest southerly flow. Subtle model differences in afternoon cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and dew-point advection create the narrow spread between the two leading bins, while historical mid-August normals near 83°F underscore the modest warm anomaly now priced in. Official resolution will use the Central Park maximum, with the next model cycle and any late-day observational adjustments likely to refine probabilities before the period closes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$625End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 9:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see the tightest odds clustered on 86-89°F for New York City’s August 19 high because National Weather Service ensemble guidance shows solutions tightly grouped around an upper-80s peak under strengthening high pressure and modest southerly flow. Subtle model differences in afternoon cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and dew-point advection create the narrow spread between the two leading bins, while historical mid-August normals near 83°F underscore the modest warm anomaly now priced in. Official resolution will use the Central Park maximum, with the next model cycle and any late-day observational adjustments likely to refine probabilities before the period closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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