Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts project a daytime high of 33°C for Tokyo on August 18 under partly cloudy skies with only 10-20% precipitation chances, aligning with the seasonal normal of 31.1°C yet tempered by urban heat island effects and potential morning cloud cover. Model consensus from agencies highlights modest variability driven by steering patterns and humidity near 78%, which can suppress peaks by 1-2°C on similar dates. This uncertainty underpins the near-even market-implied odds between 30°C and 31°C, with lower probabilities for 32°C reflecting the slim chance of full insolation or localized cooling from sea breezes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 18?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 18?
30°C 44%
31°C 36%
32°C 19%
33°C 3%
NEW
$44,023 Vol.
NEW
$44,023 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
44%
31°C
36%
32°C
19%
33°C
3%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 44%
31°C 36%
32°C 19%
33°C 3%
NEW
$44,023 Vol.
NEW
$44,023 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
25°C or below
$686 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$583 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$2,085 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$8,182 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$4,945 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$5,107 Vol.
44%
31°C
$5,911 Vol.
36%
32°C
$6,090 Vol.
19%
33°C
$5,223 Vol.
3%
34°C
$3,216 Vol.
1%
35°C or higher
$3,539 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts project a daytime high of 33°C for Tokyo on August 18 under partly cloudy skies with only 10-20% precipitation chances, aligning with the seasonal normal of 31.1°C yet tempered by urban heat island effects and potential morning cloud cover. Model consensus from agencies highlights modest variability driven by steering patterns and humidity near 78%, which can suppress peaks by 1-2°C on similar dates. This uncertainty underpins the near-even market-implied odds between 30°C and 31°C, with lower probabilities for 32°C reflecting the slim chance of full insolation or localized cooling from sea breezes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$44,023End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts project a daytime high of 33°C for Tokyo on August 18 under partly cloudy skies with only 10-20% precipitation chances, aligning with the seasonal normal of 31.1°C yet tempered by urban heat island effects and potential morning cloud cover. Model consensus from agencies highlights modest variability driven by steering patterns and humidity near 78%, which can suppress peaks by 1-2°C on similar dates. This uncertainty underpins the near-even market-implied odds between 30°C and 31°C, with lower probabilities for 32°C reflecting the slim chance of full insolation or localized cooling from sea breezes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$44,023End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts project a daytime high of 33°C for Tokyo on August 18 under partly cloudy skies with only 10-20% precipitation chances, aligning with the seasonal normal of 31.1°C yet tempered by urban heat island effects and potential morning cloud cover. Model consensus from agencies highlights modest variability driven by steering patterns and humidity near 78%, which can suppress peaks by 1-2°C on similar dates. This uncertainty underpins the near-even market-implied odds between 30°C and 31°C, with lower probabilities for 32°C reflecting the slim chance of full insolation or localized cooling from sea breezes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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