Recent forecasts from AEMET, Met Office, and BBC for Madrid on August 18, 2026, converge on a daytime maximum of 37–38 °C under clear skies and light winds, consistent with the market’s heavy weighting toward 38 °C and 39 °C. These values sit above the long-term August mean of roughly 32–33 °C but well below the city’s all-time records near 40–41 °C. Persistent high-pressure ridging, minimal cloud cover, and strong daytime insolation are sustaining the warm anomaly, while the urban heat-island effect at central stations adds 1–2 °C to official readings. No rapid cooling or thunderstorm development is indicated in the latest model consensus, keeping the implied probability tightly clustered around the upper-30s range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 18?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 18?
39°C 64%
38°C 31%
40°C 8%
37°C 2%
NEW
$39,790 Vol.
NEW
$39,790 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
34°C or below
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
1%
37°C
2%
38°C
31%
39°C
64%
40°C
8%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C or higher
<1%
39°C 64%
38°C 31%
40°C 8%
37°C 2%
NEW
$39,790 Vol.
NEW
$39,790 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
34°C or below
$1,174 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$1,622 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$2,683 Vol.
1%
37°C
$3,855 Vol.
2%
38°C
$9,851 Vol.
31%
39°C
$8,773 Vol.
64%
40°C
$7,774 Vol.
8%
41°C
$2,186 Vol.
<1%
42°C
$942 Vol.
<1%
43°C
$330 Vol.
<1%
44°C or higher
$599 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from AEMET, Met Office, and BBC for Madrid on August 18, 2026, converge on a daytime maximum of 37–38 °C under clear skies and light winds, consistent with the market’s heavy weighting toward 38 °C and 39 °C. These values sit above the long-term August mean of roughly 32–33 °C but well below the city’s all-time records near 40–41 °C. Persistent high-pressure ridging, minimal cloud cover, and strong daytime insolation are sustaining the warm anomaly, while the urban heat-island effect at central stations adds 1–2 °C to official readings. No rapid cooling or thunderstorm development is indicated in the latest model consensus, keeping the implied probability tightly clustered around the upper-30s range.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$39,790End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from AEMET, Met Office, and BBC for Madrid on August 18, 2026, converge on a daytime maximum of 37–38 °C under clear skies and light winds, consistent with the market’s heavy weighting toward 38 °C and 39 °C. These values sit above the long-term August mean of roughly 32–33 °C but well below the city’s all-time records near 40–41 °C. Persistent high-pressure ridging, minimal cloud cover, and strong daytime insolation are sustaining the warm anomaly, while the urban heat-island effect at central stations adds 1–2 °C to official readings. No rapid cooling or thunderstorm development is indicated in the latest model consensus, keeping the implied probability tightly clustered around the upper-30s range.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$39,790End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from AEMET, Met Office, and BBC for Madrid on August 18, 2026, converge on a daytime maximum of 37–38 °C under clear skies and light winds, consistent with the market’s heavy weighting toward 38 °C and 39 °C. These values sit above the long-term August mean of roughly 32–33 °C but well below the city’s all-time records near 40–41 °C. Persistent high-pressure ridging, minimal cloud cover, and strong daytime insolation are sustaining the warm anomaly, while the urban heat-island effect at central stations adds 1–2 °C to official readings. No rapid cooling or thunderstorm development is indicated in the latest model consensus, keeping the implied probability tightly clustered around the upper-30s range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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