Official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and the UK Met Office converge on a Madrid maximum of 35–36 °C for August 19 under persistent high pressure and clear skies that favor strong daytime solar heating. Recent observations of 37–38 °C highs have kept probabilities elevated across the mid-30s, while typical August climatology (average highs near 32–34 °C) and the absence of stronger heat advection or cloud cover support the market’s heavy weighting toward 36 °C at 54 % implied probability. Model guidance shows limited spread, with any shift in steering patterns or afternoon convection the main variables that could tip the outcome toward 35 °C or 37 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 19?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 19?
36°C 54%
37°C 22%
35°C 21%
34°C 3%
NEW
$16,298 Vol.
NEW
$16,298 Vol.
Aug 19, 2026
32°C or below
<1%
33°C
1%
34°C
3%
35°C
21%
36°C
54%
37°C
22%
38°C
1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C or higher
<1%
36°C 54%
37°C 22%
35°C 21%
34°C 3%
NEW
$16,298 Vol.
NEW
$16,298 Vol.
Aug 19, 2026
32°C or below
$468 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$1,176 Vol.
1%
34°C
$901 Vol.
3%
35°C
$2,570 Vol.
21%
36°C
$5,497 Vol.
54%
37°C
$3,762 Vol.
22%
38°C
$759 Vol.
1%
39°C
$696 Vol.
<1%
40°C
$220 Vol.
<1%
41°C
$125 Vol.
<1%
42°C or higher
$125 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and the UK Met Office converge on a Madrid maximum of 35–36 °C for August 19 under persistent high pressure and clear skies that favor strong daytime solar heating. Recent observations of 37–38 °C highs have kept probabilities elevated across the mid-30s, while typical August climatology (average highs near 32–34 °C) and the absence of stronger heat advection or cloud cover support the market’s heavy weighting toward 36 °C at 54 % implied probability. Model guidance shows limited spread, with any shift in steering patterns or afternoon convection the main variables that could tip the outcome toward 35 °C or 37 °C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$16,298End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and the UK Met Office converge on a Madrid maximum of 35–36 °C for August 19 under persistent high pressure and clear skies that favor strong daytime solar heating. Recent observations of 37–38 °C highs have kept probabilities elevated across the mid-30s, while typical August climatology (average highs near 32–34 °C) and the absence of stronger heat advection or cloud cover support the market’s heavy weighting toward 36 °C at 54 % implied probability. Model guidance shows limited spread, with any shift in steering patterns or afternoon convection the main variables that could tip the outcome toward 35 °C or 37 °C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$16,298End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and the UK Met Office converge on a Madrid maximum of 35–36 °C for August 19 under persistent high pressure and clear skies that favor strong daytime solar heating. Recent observations of 37–38 °C highs have kept probabilities elevated across the mid-30s, while typical August climatology (average highs near 32–34 °C) and the absence of stronger heat advection or cloud cover support the market’s heavy weighting toward 36 °C at 54 % implied probability. Model guidance shows limited spread, with any shift in steering patterns or afternoon convection the main variables that could tip the outcome toward 35 °C or 37 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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