Trader consensus clustering on 84–87°F for New York City’s highest temperature on August 18 reflects narrow forecast uncertainty in National Weather Service guidance for peak afternoon readings. The outcome hinges on the interplay between a moderating sea breeze from the Atlantic, boundary-layer moisture advection, and variable cloud cover that modulates solar insolation. With conditions near mid-August climatological norms, subtle differences in wind direction or dew-point levels can shift the daily maximum across the tightly matched leading bins. Fresh model runs and surface observations throughout the day will further constrain the range before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on August 18?
Highest temperature in NYC on August 18?
84-85°F 49%
86-87°F 32%
82-83°F 10%
88-89°F 7%
NEW
$26,276 Vol.
NEW
$26,276 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
75°F or below
<1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
2%
80-81°F
6%
82-83°F
10%
84-85°F
49%
86-87°F
32%
88-89°F
7%
90-91°F
2%
92-93°F
<1%
94°F or higher
<1%
84-85°F 49%
86-87°F 32%
82-83°F 10%
88-89°F 7%
NEW
$26,276 Vol.
NEW
$26,276 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
75°F or below
$35 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$3,106 Vol.
1%
78-79°F
$2,881 Vol.
2%
80-81°F
$3,677 Vol.
6%
82-83°F
$3,275 Vol.
10%
84-85°F
$4,430 Vol.
49%
86-87°F
$4,025 Vol.
32%
88-89°F
$2,953 Vol.
7%
90-91°F
$1,286 Vol.
2%
92-93°F
$321 Vol.
<1%
94°F or higher
$286 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus clustering on 84–87°F for New York City’s highest temperature on August 18 reflects narrow forecast uncertainty in National Weather Service guidance for peak afternoon readings. The outcome hinges on the interplay between a moderating sea breeze from the Atlantic, boundary-layer moisture advection, and variable cloud cover that modulates solar insolation. With conditions near mid-August climatological norms, subtle differences in wind direction or dew-point levels can shift the daily maximum across the tightly matched leading bins. Fresh model runs and surface observations throughout the day will further constrain the range before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 16, 2026, 9:56 PM ET
Volume
$26,276End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 9:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus clustering on 84–87°F for New York City’s highest temperature on August 18 reflects narrow forecast uncertainty in National Weather Service guidance for peak afternoon readings. The outcome hinges on the interplay between a moderating sea breeze from the Atlantic, boundary-layer moisture advection, and variable cloud cover that modulates solar insolation. With conditions near mid-August climatological norms, subtle differences in wind direction or dew-point levels can shift the daily maximum across the tightly matched leading bins. Fresh model runs and surface observations throughout the day will further constrain the range before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$26,276End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 9:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus clustering on 84–87°F for New York City’s highest temperature on August 18 reflects narrow forecast uncertainty in National Weather Service guidance for peak afternoon readings. The outcome hinges on the interplay between a moderating sea breeze from the Atlantic, boundary-layer moisture advection, and variable cloud cover that modulates solar insolation. With conditions near mid-August climatological norms, subtle differences in wind direction or dew-point levels can shift the daily maximum across the tightly matched leading bins. Fresh model runs and surface observations throughout the day will further constrain the range before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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