Recent National Weather Service forecasts for the New York City area point to mostly sunny skies and light northwest winds on August 18, supporting minimum temperatures in the mid-70s amid elevated dew points typical of late-summer humidity. These conditions limit overnight radiational cooling, consistent with the market-implied 70% probability on a 74-75°F low and the secondary 28% weighting toward 72-73°F. Broader August outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center indicate a leaning toward above-average temperatures across the region, reinforcing trader consensus around these thresholds rather than cooler outcomes. Updated model guidance and any shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns through the evening will remain key variables ahead of final observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on August 18?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 18?
74-75°F 71%
72-73°F 29%
70-71°F 5%
68-69°F 3%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
63°F or below
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
3%
70-71°F
5%
72-73°F
29%
74-75°F
71%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82°F or higher
<1%
74-75°F 71%
72-73°F 29%
70-71°F 5%
68-69°F 3%
NEW
NEW
Aug 18, 2026
63°F or below
$150 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$150 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$206 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$31 Vol.
3%
70-71°F
$175 Vol.
5%
72-73°F
$282 Vol.
29%
74-75°F
$486 Vol.
71%
76-77°F
$2,014 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$834 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$1,638 Vol.
<1%
82°F or higher
$421 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts for the New York City area point to mostly sunny skies and light northwest winds on August 18, supporting minimum temperatures in the mid-70s amid elevated dew points typical of late-summer humidity. These conditions limit overnight radiational cooling, consistent with the market-implied 70% probability on a 74-75°F low and the secondary 28% weighting toward 72-73°F. Broader August outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center indicate a leaning toward above-average temperatures across the region, reinforcing trader consensus around these thresholds rather than cooler outcomes. Updated model guidance and any shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns through the evening will remain key variables ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 16, 2026, 9:28 PM ET
Volume
$6,387End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts for the New York City area point to mostly sunny skies and light northwest winds on August 18, supporting minimum temperatures in the mid-70s amid elevated dew points typical of late-summer humidity. These conditions limit overnight radiational cooling, consistent with the market-implied 70% probability on a 74-75°F low and the secondary 28% weighting toward 72-73°F. Broader August outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center indicate a leaning toward above-average temperatures across the region, reinforcing trader consensus around these thresholds rather than cooler outcomes. Updated model guidance and any shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns through the evening will remain key variables ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,387End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service forecasts for the New York City area point to mostly sunny skies and light northwest winds on August 18, supporting minimum temperatures in the mid-70s amid elevated dew points typical of late-summer humidity. These conditions limit overnight radiational cooling, consistent with the market-implied 70% probability on a 74-75°F low and the secondary 28% weighting toward 72-73°F. Broader August outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center indicate a leaning toward above-average temperatures across the region, reinforcing trader consensus around these thresholds rather than cooler outcomes. Updated model guidance and any shifts in cloud cover or wind patterns through the evening will remain key variables ahead of final observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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