Latest Hong Kong Observatory guidance and multi-model consensus forecast a daytime maximum of 31–32 °C on August 18 amid humid conditions and scattered showers, directly supporting the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes. Seasonal warmth above historical baselines, combined with typical August subtropical patterns, keeps extremes unlikely while rain timing introduces modest uncertainty in peak readings. Traders weigh convective activity and humidity levels against official observational thresholds, with the wisdom of crowds reflected in real-capital pricing of the narrow 31–32 °C window. Updated HKO briefings and afternoon observations remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on August 18?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 18?
32°C 47%
31°C 38%
33°C 10%
30°C 5.4%
NEW
$85,063 Vol.
NEW
$85,063 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
5%
31°C
38%
32°C
47%
33°C
10%
34°C
2%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
32°C 47%
31°C 38%
33°C 10%
30°C 5.4%
NEW
$85,063 Vol.
NEW
$85,063 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
26°C or below
$1,852 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$981 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$2,816 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$22,955 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$20,591 Vol.
5%
31°C
$12,035 Vol.
38%
32°C
$6,844 Vol.
47%
33°C
$9,081 Vol.
10%
34°C
$2,871 Vol.
2%
35°C
$3,194 Vol.
<1%
36°C or higher
$1,843 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest Hong Kong Observatory guidance and multi-model consensus forecast a daytime maximum of 31–32 °C on August 18 amid humid conditions and scattered showers, directly supporting the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes. Seasonal warmth above historical baselines, combined with typical August subtropical patterns, keeps extremes unlikely while rain timing introduces modest uncertainty in peak readings. Traders weigh convective activity and humidity levels against official observational thresholds, with the wisdom of crowds reflected in real-capital pricing of the narrow 31–32 °C window. Updated HKO briefings and afternoon observations remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$85,063End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest Hong Kong Observatory guidance and multi-model consensus forecast a daytime maximum of 31–32 °C on August 18 amid humid conditions and scattered showers, directly supporting the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes. Seasonal warmth above historical baselines, combined with typical August subtropical patterns, keeps extremes unlikely while rain timing introduces modest uncertainty in peak readings. Traders weigh convective activity and humidity levels against official observational thresholds, with the wisdom of crowds reflected in real-capital pricing of the narrow 31–32 °C window. Updated HKO briefings and afternoon observations remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$85,063End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest Hong Kong Observatory guidance and multi-model consensus forecast a daytime maximum of 31–32 °C on August 18 amid humid conditions and scattered showers, directly supporting the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes. Seasonal warmth above historical baselines, combined with typical August subtropical patterns, keeps extremes unlikely while rain timing introduces modest uncertainty in peak readings. Traders weigh convective activity and humidity levels against official observational thresholds, with the wisdom of crowds reflected in real-capital pricing of the narrow 31–32 °C window. Updated HKO briefings and afternoon observations remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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