Persistent late-summer heat across South Florida, driven by high pressure, light winds, and abundant sunshine with minimal afternoon convection, has elevated trader focus on the 98-99°F bin as the leading outcome. Official National Weather Service guidance and model consensus point to a daily maximum near 94-96°F at Miami International Airport, yet recent days have seen actual readings exceed forecasts amid urban heat retention and record-challenging conditions, with heat indices projected above 110°F. This pattern, building on mid-August highs that already reached 96°F and broke daily records, leaves room for an upward revision if steering currents weaken further or if localized heating intensifies before the 7 p.m. ET observation window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Miami on August 18?
Highest temperature in Miami on August 18?
98-99°F 47%
96-97°F 38%
100-101°F 13%
94-95°F 4%
NEW
$13,988 Vol.
NEW
$13,988 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
91°F or below
<1%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
4%
96-97°F
38%
98-99°F
47%
100-101°F
13%
102-103°F
2%
104-105°F
<1%
106-107°F
<1%
108-109°F
<1%
110°F or higher
<1%
98-99°F 47%
96-97°F 38%
100-101°F 13%
94-95°F 4%
NEW
$13,988 Vol.
NEW
$13,988 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
91°F or below
$127 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$1,652 Vol.
1%
94-95°F
$813 Vol.
4%
96-97°F
$3,714 Vol.
38%
98-99°F
$4,001 Vol.
47%
100-101°F
$2,128 Vol.
13%
102-103°F
$869 Vol.
2%
104-105°F
$192 Vol.
<1%
106-107°F
$212 Vol.
<1%
108-109°F
$140 Vol.
<1%
110°F or higher
$140 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent late-summer heat across South Florida, driven by high pressure, light winds, and abundant sunshine with minimal afternoon convection, has elevated trader focus on the 98-99°F bin as the leading outcome. Official National Weather Service guidance and model consensus point to a daily maximum near 94-96°F at Miami International Airport, yet recent days have seen actual readings exceed forecasts amid urban heat retention and record-challenging conditions, with heat indices projected above 110°F. This pattern, building on mid-August highs that already reached 96°F and broke daily records, leaves room for an upward revision if steering currents weaken further or if localized heating intensifies before the 7 p.m. ET observation window closes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 16, 2026, 9:56 PM ET
Volume
$13,988End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 9:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent late-summer heat across South Florida, driven by high pressure, light winds, and abundant sunshine with minimal afternoon convection, has elevated trader focus on the 98-99°F bin as the leading outcome. Official National Weather Service guidance and model consensus point to a daily maximum near 94-96°F at Miami International Airport, yet recent days have seen actual readings exceed forecasts amid urban heat retention and record-challenging conditions, with heat indices projected above 110°F. This pattern, building on mid-August highs that already reached 96°F and broke daily records, leaves room for an upward revision if steering currents weaken further or if localized heating intensifies before the 7 p.m. ET observation window closes.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$13,988End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 9:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent late-summer heat across South Florida, driven by high pressure, light winds, and abundant sunshine with minimal afternoon convection, has elevated trader focus on the 98-99°F bin as the leading outcome. Official National Weather Service guidance and model consensus point to a daily maximum near 94-96°F at Miami International Airport, yet recent days have seen actual readings exceed forecasts amid urban heat retention and record-challenging conditions, with heat indices projected above 110°F. This pattern, building on mid-August highs that already reached 96°F and broke daily records, leaves room for an upward revision if steering currents weaken further or if localized heating intensifies before the 7 p.m. ET observation window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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