Recent forecast guidance from European and global models points to a sharp cooldown in Paris on August 19 as cooler Atlantic maritime air displaces lingering warm continental flow, bringing increased cloud cover, showers, and daytime maxima centered near 24–27 °C. This transition explains why market-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 23–25 °C: small differences in predicted cloud thickness, shower timing, and boundary-layer mixing can shift the daily high by 1–2 °C. Historical late-August climatology shows mean highs near 24 °C, providing a baseline against which current model consensus is weighed. Traders appear to discount earlier heat-wave persistence given the confirmed influx of unstable, moisture-laden air masses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on August 19?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 19?
24°C 26%
23°C 22%
25°C 13%
27°C 12%
NEW
$25,989 Vol.
NEW
$25,989 Vol.
Aug 19, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
4%
22°C
8%
23°C
22%
24°C
26%
25°C
13%
26°C
7%
27°C
12%
28°C
7%
29°C or higher
7%
24°C 26%
23°C 22%
25°C 13%
27°C 12%
NEW
$25,989 Vol.
NEW
$25,989 Vol.
Aug 19, 2026
19°C or below
$787 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$934 Vol.
1%
21°C
$1,484 Vol.
4%
22°C
$1,915 Vol.
8%
23°C
$2,573 Vol.
22%
24°C
$2,317 Vol.
26%
25°C
$1,394 Vol.
13%
26°C
$1,804 Vol.
7%
27°C
$2,967 Vol.
12%
28°C
$3,860 Vol.
7%
29°C or higher
$5,953 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from European and global models points to a sharp cooldown in Paris on August 19 as cooler Atlantic maritime air displaces lingering warm continental flow, bringing increased cloud cover, showers, and daytime maxima centered near 24–27 °C. This transition explains why market-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 23–25 °C: small differences in predicted cloud thickness, shower timing, and boundary-layer mixing can shift the daily high by 1–2 °C. Historical late-August climatology shows mean highs near 24 °C, providing a baseline against which current model consensus is weighed. Traders appear to discount earlier heat-wave persistence given the confirmed influx of unstable, moisture-laden air masses.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$25,989End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from European and global models points to a sharp cooldown in Paris on August 19 as cooler Atlantic maritime air displaces lingering warm continental flow, bringing increased cloud cover, showers, and daytime maxima centered near 24–27 °C. This transition explains why market-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 23–25 °C: small differences in predicted cloud thickness, shower timing, and boundary-layer mixing can shift the daily high by 1–2 °C. Historical late-August climatology shows mean highs near 24 °C, providing a baseline against which current model consensus is weighed. Traders appear to discount earlier heat-wave persistence given the confirmed influx of unstable, moisture-laden air masses.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$25,989End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast guidance from European and global models points to a sharp cooldown in Paris on August 19 as cooler Atlantic maritime air displaces lingering warm continental flow, bringing increased cloud cover, showers, and daytime maxima centered near 24–27 °C. This transition explains why market-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 23–25 °C: small differences in predicted cloud thickness, shower timing, and boundary-layer mixing can shift the daily high by 1–2 °C. Historical late-August climatology shows mean highs near 24 °C, providing a baseline against which current model consensus is weighed. Traders appear to discount earlier heat-wave persistence given the confirmed influx of unstable, moisture-laden air masses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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