Recent forecast models from agencies like the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology point to a maximum near 23°C in Warsaw on August 26, driven by moderate Atlantic air advection under weak high pressure with partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly winds limiting daytime heating. This aligns with climatological norms for late August, when average highs reach 22–23°C amid declining solar insolation and typical boundary-layer mixing. Leading market probabilities cluster tightly on 22–24°C outcomes because short-range ensemble runs show only modest spread in cloud cover and surface moisture that could shift the peak by 1–2°C, with official station data at Chopin Airport serving as the resolution source. Traders weigh these meteorological variables against historical variability, where similar setups have produced comparable daily maxima.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 26?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 26?
23°C 37%
22°C 33%
24°C 25%
21°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
17°C or below
2%
18°C
2%
19°C
2%
20°C
8%
21°C
11%
22°C
33%
23°C
37%
24°C
25%
25°C
5%
26°C
4%
27°C or higher
4%
23°C 37%
22°C 33%
24°C 25%
21°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
17°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
18°C
$5 Vol.
2%
19°C
$5 Vol.
2%
20°C
$14 Vol.
8%
21°C
$55 Vol.
11%
22°C
$17 Vol.
33%
23°C
$17 Vol.
37%
24°C
$1 Vol.
25%
25°C
$0 Vol.
5%
26°C
$0 Vol.
4%
27°C or higher
$0 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies like the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology point to a maximum near 23°C in Warsaw on August 26, driven by moderate Atlantic air advection under weak high pressure with partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly winds limiting daytime heating. This aligns with climatological norms for late August, when average highs reach 22–23°C amid declining solar insolation and typical boundary-layer mixing. Leading market probabilities cluster tightly on 22–24°C outcomes because short-range ensemble runs show only modest spread in cloud cover and surface moisture that could shift the peak by 1–2°C, with official station data at Chopin Airport serving as the resolution source. Traders weigh these meteorological variables against historical variability, where similar setups have produced comparable daily maxima.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$113End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies like the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology point to a maximum near 23°C in Warsaw on August 26, driven by moderate Atlantic air advection under weak high pressure with partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly winds limiting daytime heating. This aligns with climatological norms for late August, when average highs reach 22–23°C amid declining solar insolation and typical boundary-layer mixing. Leading market probabilities cluster tightly on 22–24°C outcomes because short-range ensemble runs show only modest spread in cloud cover and surface moisture that could shift the peak by 1–2°C, with official station data at Chopin Airport serving as the resolution source. Traders weigh these meteorological variables against historical variability, where similar setups have produced comparable daily maxima.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$113End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from agencies like the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology point to a maximum near 23°C in Warsaw on August 26, driven by moderate Atlantic air advection under weak high pressure with partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly winds limiting daytime heating. This aligns with climatological norms for late August, when average highs reach 22–23°C amid declining solar insolation and typical boundary-layer mixing. Leading market probabilities cluster tightly on 22–24°C outcomes because short-range ensemble runs show only modest spread in cloud cover and surface moisture that could shift the peak by 1–2°C, with official station data at Chopin Airport serving as the resolution source. Traders weigh these meteorological variables against historical variability, where similar setups have produced comparable daily maxima.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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