Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models show Warsaw's maximum temperature on August 24 clustering tightly around 19–20°C under partly cloudy skies with light showers. This scientific consensus drives the market's near-even split between those leading outcomes. Key differentiating factors include variable cloud cover that modulates incoming solar radiation, the timing and intensity of any showers which can suppress daytime heating through evaporative cooling, and local wind patterns tied to a weak pressure gradient. Historical August averages near 23°C provide context, yet current synoptic conditions favor cooler readings. Updated model runs and official observations from the Polish Institute of Meteorology will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 24?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 24?
19°C 38%
20°C 37%
18°C 10%
21°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
3%
18°C
10%
19°C
38%
20°C
37%
21°C
8%
22°C
2%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C or higher
<1%
19°C 38%
20°C 37%
18°C 10%
21°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
15°C or below
$135 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$85 Vol.
1%
17°C
$85 Vol.
3%
18°C
$372 Vol.
10%
19°C
$254 Vol.
38%
20°C
$1,358 Vol.
37%
21°C
$405 Vol.
8%
22°C
$91 Vol.
2%
23°C
$138 Vol.
1%
24°C
$145 Vol.
1%
25°C or higher
$289 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models show Warsaw's maximum temperature on August 24 clustering tightly around 19–20°C under partly cloudy skies with light showers. This scientific consensus drives the market's near-even split between those leading outcomes. Key differentiating factors include variable cloud cover that modulates incoming solar radiation, the timing and intensity of any showers which can suppress daytime heating through evaporative cooling, and local wind patterns tied to a weak pressure gradient. Historical August averages near 23°C provide context, yet current synoptic conditions favor cooler readings. Updated model runs and official observations from the Polish Institute of Meteorology will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ET
Volume
$3,358End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models show Warsaw's maximum temperature on August 24 clustering tightly around 19–20°C under partly cloudy skies with light showers. This scientific consensus drives the market's near-even split between those leading outcomes. Key differentiating factors include variable cloud cover that modulates incoming solar radiation, the timing and intensity of any showers which can suppress daytime heating through evaporative cooling, and local wind patterns tied to a weak pressure gradient. Historical August averages near 23°C provide context, yet current synoptic conditions favor cooler readings. Updated model runs and official observations from the Polish Institute of Meteorology will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,358End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models show Warsaw's maximum temperature on August 24 clustering tightly around 19–20°C under partly cloudy skies with light showers. This scientific consensus drives the market's near-even split between those leading outcomes. Key differentiating factors include variable cloud cover that modulates incoming solar radiation, the timing and intensity of any showers which can suppress daytime heating through evaporative cooling, and local wind patterns tied to a weak pressure gradient. Historical August averages near 23°C provide context, yet current synoptic conditions favor cooler readings. Updated model runs and official observations from the Polish Institute of Meteorology will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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