**Forecast models and observations point to a peak temperature near 29–30°C in Istanbul on August 23, 2026, under mostly clear skies and light-to-moderate northerly winds.** Multiple sources, including GFS-based guidance and local reports, show daytime highs climbing from morning lows around 21–23°C to afternoon peaks of 29–31°C (roughly 84–88°F), with the exact maximum hinging on the timing of peak solar heating and any sea-breeze moderation from the Bosphorus and Marmara. The near-even market split between 28°C (41%) and 29°C (44.5%) reflects genuine uncertainty in the precise hourly maximum. Istanbul’s urban heat island can add 1–2°C in the city center versus airport stations, while strengthening northerly etesian-type winds and slight cloud increases in the afternoon may shave a degree off the peak. Clear conditions and above-normal seasonal warmth support the slight edge to 29°C, yet any earlier or stronger breeze could keep readings at or below 28°C. Higher outcomes above 30°C carry low implied probability consistent with the absence of extreme heat signals in current model runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 23?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 23?
29°C 44%
28°C 43%
30°C 22.6%
31°C 2.6%
$26,643 Vol.
$26,643 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
35%
29°C
44%
30°C
23%
31°C
3%
32°C
1%
33°C or higher
<1%
29°C 44%
28°C 43%
30°C 22.6%
31°C 2.6%
$26,643 Vol.
$26,643 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
23°C or below
$455 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,688 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$858 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$1,045 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$5,156 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$5,031 Vol.
35%
29°C
$4,409 Vol.
44%
30°C
$2,337 Vol.
23%
31°C
$2,205 Vol.
3%
32°C
$2,426 Vol.
1%
33°C or higher
$1,342 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and observations point to a peak temperature near 29–30°C in Istanbul on August 23, 2026, under mostly clear skies and light-to-moderate northerly winds.** Multiple sources, including GFS-based guidance and local reports, show daytime highs climbing from morning lows around 21–23°C to afternoon peaks of 29–31°C (roughly 84–88°F), with the exact maximum hinging on the timing of peak solar heating and any sea-breeze moderation from the Bosphorus and Marmara.
The near-even market split between 28°C (41%) and 29°C (44.5%) reflects genuine uncertainty in the precise hourly maximum. Istanbul’s urban heat island can add 1–2°C in the city center versus airport stations, while strengthening northerly etesian-type winds and slight cloud increases in the afternoon may shave a degree off the peak. Clear conditions and above-normal seasonal warmth support the slight edge to 29°C, yet any earlier or stronger breeze could keep readings at or below 28°C. Higher outcomes above 30°C carry low implied probability consistent with the absence of extreme heat signals in current model runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$26,643End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and observations point to a peak temperature near 29–30°C in Istanbul on August 23, 2026, under mostly clear skies and light-to-moderate northerly winds.** Multiple sources, including GFS-based guidance and local reports, show daytime highs climbing from morning lows around 21–23°C to afternoon peaks of 29–31°C (roughly 84–88°F), with the exact maximum hinging on the timing of peak solar heating and any sea-breeze moderation from the Bosphorus and Marmara.
The near-even market split between 28°C (41%) and 29°C (44.5%) reflects genuine uncertainty in the precise hourly maximum. Istanbul’s urban heat island can add 1–2°C in the city center versus airport stations, while strengthening northerly etesian-type winds and slight cloud increases in the afternoon may shave a degree off the peak. Clear conditions and above-normal seasonal warmth support the slight edge to 29°C, yet any earlier or stronger breeze could keep readings at or below 28°C. Higher outcomes above 30°C carry low implied probability consistent with the absence of extreme heat signals in current model runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$26,643End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models and observations point to a peak temperature near 29–30°C in Istanbul on August 23, 2026, under mostly clear skies and light-to-moderate northerly winds.** Multiple sources, including GFS-based guidance and local reports, show daytime highs climbing from morning lows around 21–23°C to afternoon peaks of 29–31°C (roughly 84–88°F), with the exact maximum hinging on the timing of peak solar heating and any sea-breeze moderation from the Bosphorus and Marmara. The near-even market split between 28°C (41%) and 29°C (44.5%) reflects genuine uncertainty in the precise hourly maximum. Istanbul’s urban heat island can add 1–2°C in the city center versus airport stations, while strengthening northerly etesian-type winds and slight cloud increases in the afternoon may shave a degree off the peak. Clear conditions and above-normal seasonal warmth support the slight edge to 29°C, yet any earlier or stronger breeze could keep readings at or below 28°C. Higher outcomes above 30°C carry low implied probability consistent with the absence of extreme heat signals in current model runs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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