Forecasts from sources including AccuWeather, timeanddate, and BBC Weather indicate Shenzhen's August 23 maximum will reach approximately 32–33°C under typical late-summer subtropical high pressure, with humid air masses, light winds, and scattered thundershowers limiting extreme heating. This aligns with historical August averages near 32°C and recent model runs showing minimal day-to-day variance. The market's 97.5% implied probability on 33°C reflects traders' confidence in these stable conditions and official measurement protocols. A realistic shift could occur if heavier cloud cover or earlier rainfall develops, suppressing the peak by 1–2°C, or if steering patterns allow clearer skies and stronger insolation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on August 23?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 23?
33°C 98%
34°C 4%
32°C <1%
35°C or higher <1%
$47,522 Vol.
$47,522 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
1%
33°C
98%
34°C
4%
35°C or higher
1%
33°C 98%
34°C 4%
32°C <1%
35°C or higher <1%
$47,522 Vol.
$47,522 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
25°C or below
$430 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$828 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$2,467 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1,440 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$5,733 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$3,348 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$7,871 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$9,802 Vol.
1%
33°C
$4,661 Vol.
98%
34°C
$3,846 Vol.
4%
35°C or higher
$7,096 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecasts from sources including AccuWeather, timeanddate, and BBC Weather indicate Shenzhen's August 23 maximum will reach approximately 32–33°C under typical late-summer subtropical high pressure, with humid air masses, light winds, and scattered thundershowers limiting extreme heating. This aligns with historical August averages near 32°C and recent model runs showing minimal day-to-day variance. The market's 97.5% implied probability on 33°C reflects traders' confidence in these stable conditions and official measurement protocols. A realistic shift could occur if heavier cloud cover or earlier rainfall develops, suppressing the peak by 1–2°C, or if steering patterns allow clearer skies and stronger insolation.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$47,522End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecasts from sources including AccuWeather, timeanddate, and BBC Weather indicate Shenzhen's August 23 maximum will reach approximately 32–33°C under typical late-summer subtropical high pressure, with humid air masses, light winds, and scattered thundershowers limiting extreme heating. This aligns with historical August averages near 32°C and recent model runs showing minimal day-to-day variance. The market's 97.5% implied probability on 33°C reflects traders' confidence in these stable conditions and official measurement protocols. A realistic shift could occur if heavier cloud cover or earlier rainfall develops, suppressing the peak by 1–2°C, or if steering patterns allow clearer skies and stronger insolation.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$47,522End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecasts from sources including AccuWeather, timeanddate, and BBC Weather indicate Shenzhen's August 23 maximum will reach approximately 32–33°C under typical late-summer subtropical high pressure, with humid air masses, light winds, and scattered thundershowers limiting extreme heating. This aligns with historical August averages near 32°C and recent model runs showing minimal day-to-day variance. The market's 97.5% implied probability on 33°C reflects traders' confidence in these stable conditions and official measurement protocols. A realistic shift could occur if heavier cloud cover or earlier rainfall develops, suppressing the peak by 1–2°C, or if steering patterns allow clearer skies and stronger insolation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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