Current ensemble guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and global models indicates scattered afternoon convection and variable cloud cover over the Sichuan Basin on August 25, supporting a most likely daily maximum near 34–35 °C. Residual monsoon moisture and weak steering flow favor brief thunderstorms that can suppress peak heating, though any earlier clearing or reduced rainfall intensity could allow readings to reach 36 °C. The market’s tight clustering between 35–37 °C reflects this narrow window of uncertainty in convective timing and local urban heat retention, with lower probabilities assigned to 38 °C or above given climatological August norms and the expected persistence of humid, unstable conditions. Updated model runs and CMA short-term bulletins over the next 48 hours will provide the key signals for resolution.