Recent forecasts from multiple models, including ECMWF and GFS runs updated August 23, indicate a maximum temperature in Paris of 27–28°C on August 24 under easterly flow and increasing cloud cover that limits daytime heating. This positions the market-implied probabilities for those outcomes at 46% and 35%, respectively, consistent with ensemble means near 26–28°C and historical analogs for late-August conditions following the month's earlier heatwave peak above 39°C. Northeast winds and dew points around 9–12°C further suppress peak readings compared to clearer, southerly patterns, while minimal precipitation risk has little effect on the daily high. Updated model guidance through the evening of August 23 continues to support this narrow range ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on August 24?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 24?
27°C 47%
28°C 34%
26°C 13%
29°C 8%
NEW
$33,075 Vol.
NEW
$33,075 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
2%
25°C
3%
26°C
13%
27°C
47%
28°C
34%
29°C
8%
30°C
2%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
27°C 47%
28°C 34%
26°C 13%
29°C 8%
NEW
$33,075 Vol.
NEW
$33,075 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
23°C or below
$1,545 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$2,959 Vol.
2%
25°C
$3,712 Vol.
3%
26°C
$5,146 Vol.
13%
27°C
$5,357 Vol.
47%
28°C
$5,132 Vol.
34%
29°C
$3,530 Vol.
8%
30°C
$3,055 Vol.
2%
31°C
$1,507 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$948 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$185 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models, including ECMWF and GFS runs updated August 23, indicate a maximum temperature in Paris of 27–28°C on August 24 under easterly flow and increasing cloud cover that limits daytime heating. This positions the market-implied probabilities for those outcomes at 46% and 35%, respectively, consistent with ensemble means near 26–28°C and historical analogs for late-August conditions following the month's earlier heatwave peak above 39°C. Northeast winds and dew points around 9–12°C further suppress peak readings compared to clearer, southerly patterns, while minimal precipitation risk has little effect on the daily high. Updated model guidance through the evening of August 23 continues to support this narrow range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 1:55 AM ET
Volume
$33,075End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 1:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models, including ECMWF and GFS runs updated August 23, indicate a maximum temperature in Paris of 27–28°C on August 24 under easterly flow and increasing cloud cover that limits daytime heating. This positions the market-implied probabilities for those outcomes at 46% and 35%, respectively, consistent with ensemble means near 26–28°C and historical analogs for late-August conditions following the month's earlier heatwave peak above 39°C. Northeast winds and dew points around 9–12°C further suppress peak readings compared to clearer, southerly patterns, while minimal precipitation risk has little effect on the daily high. Updated model guidance through the evening of August 23 continues to support this narrow range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$33,075End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 1:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models, including ECMWF and GFS runs updated August 23, indicate a maximum temperature in Paris of 27–28°C on August 24 under easterly flow and increasing cloud cover that limits daytime heating. This positions the market-implied probabilities for those outcomes at 46% and 35%, respectively, consistent with ensemble means near 26–28°C and historical analogs for late-August conditions following the month's earlier heatwave peak above 39°C. Northeast winds and dew points around 9–12°C further suppress peak readings compared to clearer, southerly patterns, while minimal precipitation risk has little effect on the daily high. Updated model guidance through the evening of August 23 continues to support this narrow range ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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