Recent model consensus from AEMET and international ensembles shows a shift to southwesterly flow advecting cooler, moister air into central Spain, producing partial cloud cover and a 20–30% chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms that limit insolation and cap the daily maximum. After recent highs near 33°C, this pattern has pulled projected peaks for August 24 into the narrow 26–28°C window, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around 27°C (31.5%) and 28°C (35.5%). Minor differences between those two outcomes hinge on exact cloud timing, convective initiation, and boundary-layer mixing under moderate southwesterly winds, while lower probabilities for 26°C or 29°C reflect residual ensemble spread in the final 24–48 hours before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 24?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 24?
28°C 36%
27°C 32%
26°C 15%
29°C 11%
NEW
$14,490 Vol.
NEW
$14,490 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
2%
26°C
15%
27°C
32%
28°C
36%
29°C
11%
30°C
5%
31°C
1%
32°C
1%
33°C or higher
<1%
28°C 36%
27°C 32%
26°C 15%
29°C 11%
NEW
$14,490 Vol.
NEW
$14,490 Vol.
Aug 24, 2026
23°C or below
$305 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$365 Vol.
1%
25°C
$617 Vol.
2%
26°C
$1,950 Vol.
15%
27°C
$1,339 Vol.
32%
28°C
$4,831 Vol.
36%
29°C
$3,343 Vol.
11%
30°C
$1,034 Vol.
5%
31°C
$111 Vol.
1%
32°C
$160 Vol.
1%
33°C or higher
$436 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from AEMET and international ensembles shows a shift to southwesterly flow advecting cooler, moister air into central Spain, producing partial cloud cover and a 20–30% chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms that limit insolation and cap the daily maximum. After recent highs near 33°C, this pattern has pulled projected peaks for August 24 into the narrow 26–28°C window, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around 27°C (31.5%) and 28°C (35.5%). Minor differences between those two outcomes hinge on exact cloud timing, convective initiation, and boundary-layer mixing under moderate southwesterly winds, while lower probabilities for 26°C or 29°C reflect residual ensemble spread in the final 24–48 hours before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ET
Volume
$14,490End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from AEMET and international ensembles shows a shift to southwesterly flow advecting cooler, moister air into central Spain, producing partial cloud cover and a 20–30% chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms that limit insolation and cap the daily maximum. After recent highs near 33°C, this pattern has pulled projected peaks for August 24 into the narrow 26–28°C window, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around 27°C (31.5%) and 28°C (35.5%). Minor differences between those two outcomes hinge on exact cloud timing, convective initiation, and boundary-layer mixing under moderate southwesterly winds, while lower probabilities for 26°C or 29°C reflect residual ensemble spread in the final 24–48 hours before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$14,490End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from AEMET and international ensembles shows a shift to southwesterly flow advecting cooler, moister air into central Spain, producing partial cloud cover and a 20–30% chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms that limit insolation and cap the daily maximum. After recent highs near 33°C, this pattern has pulled projected peaks for August 24 into the narrow 26–28°C window, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around 27°C (31.5%) and 28°C (35.5%). Minor differences between those two outcomes hinge on exact cloud timing, convective initiation, and boundary-layer mixing under moderate southwesterly winds, while lower probabilities for 26°C or 29°C reflect residual ensemble spread in the final 24–48 hours before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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