Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Chicago on August 23, 2026, centers on a daytime high near 76°F amid northwesterly flow and partly cloudy conditions, keeping values well below the 1991-2020 climatological normal of 82°F. This cooler pattern, influenced by a persistent upper-level trough over the upper Midwest, has aligned trader consensus with the 74–77°F range at over 94% implied probability. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with most solutions clustered between 73–78°F, though minor shifts in frontal timing or boundary-layer mixing could nudge the peak by a degree or two. Historical August variability and ongoing monitoring of updated model runs continue to support these leading outcomes over warmer alternatives.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on August 23?
Highest temperature in Chicago on August 23?
76-77°F 62%
74-75°F 33%
78-79°F 6%
72-73°F 2%
NEW
$17,749 Vol.
NEW
$17,749 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
65°F or below
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
2%
74-75°F
33%
76-77°F
62%
78-79°F
6%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
<1%
84°F or higher
<1%
76-77°F 62%
74-75°F 33%
78-79°F 6%
72-73°F 2%
NEW
$17,749 Vol.
NEW
$17,749 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
65°F or below
$826 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$828 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$2,237 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$1,649 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$1,441 Vol.
2%
74-75°F
$2,424 Vol.
33%
76-77°F
$2,939 Vol.
62%
78-79°F
$2,116 Vol.
6%
80-81°F
$1,085 Vol.
1%
82-83°F
$710 Vol.
<1%
84°F or higher
$1,493 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Chicago on August 23, 2026, centers on a daytime high near 76°F amid northwesterly flow and partly cloudy conditions, keeping values well below the 1991-2020 climatological normal of 82°F. This cooler pattern, influenced by a persistent upper-level trough over the upper Midwest, has aligned trader consensus with the 74–77°F range at over 94% implied probability. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with most solutions clustered between 73–78°F, though minor shifts in frontal timing or boundary-layer mixing could nudge the peak by a degree or two. Historical August variability and ongoing monitoring of updated model runs continue to support these leading outcomes over warmer alternatives.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$17,749End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Chicago on August 23, 2026, centers on a daytime high near 76°F amid northwesterly flow and partly cloudy conditions, keeping values well below the 1991-2020 climatological normal of 82°F. This cooler pattern, influenced by a persistent upper-level trough over the upper Midwest, has aligned trader consensus with the 74–77°F range at over 94% implied probability. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with most solutions clustered between 73–78°F, though minor shifts in frontal timing or boundary-layer mixing could nudge the peak by a degree or two. Historical August variability and ongoing monitoring of updated model runs continue to support these leading outcomes over warmer alternatives.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$17,749End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Chicago on August 23, 2026, centers on a daytime high near 76°F amid northwesterly flow and partly cloudy conditions, keeping values well below the 1991-2020 climatological normal of 82°F. This cooler pattern, influenced by a persistent upper-level trough over the upper Midwest, has aligned trader consensus with the 74–77°F range at over 94% implied probability. Ensemble spreads remain modest, with most solutions clustered between 73–78°F, though minor shifts in frontal timing or boundary-layer mixing could nudge the peak by a degree or two. Historical August variability and ongoing monitoring of updated model runs continue to support these leading outcomes over warmer alternatives.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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