**Trader sentiment for Chicago's August 24 low temperature reflects moderate uncertainty around model consensus for overnight radiative cooling.** Current National Weather Service and private forecasts point to a minimum near 60°F under mostly clear skies, light winds, and a stable high-pressure regime following northwest flow on August 23. These conditions favor efficient surface heat loss after sunset, though urban heat island effects, proximity to Lake Michigan, and dew-point levels near 55–60°F could moderate the drop. The closely matched leading outcomes (47°F or below at 35.5%, 58–59°F at 33.0%) highlight divergence among ensemble members on exact wind speeds and cloud cover timing, with historical late-August averages around 65°F providing context for the cooler anomaly. Updated model runs and evening observations ahead of the overnight period remain key catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chicago on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Chicago on August 24?
47°F or below 53%
66°F or higher 49%
58-59°F 37%
56-57°F 29%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
47°F or below
53%
48-49°F
7%
50-51°F
19%
52-53°F
16%
54-55°F
20%
56-57°F
29%
58-59°F
36%
60-61°F
15%
62-63°F
10%
64-65°F
2%
66°F or higher
49%
47°F or below 53%
66°F or higher 49%
58-59°F 37%
56-57°F 29%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
47°F or below
$12 Vol.
53%
48-49°F
$55 Vol.
7%
50-51°F
$55 Vol.
19%
52-53°F
$885 Vol.
16%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
20%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
29%
58-59°F
$5 Vol.
36%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
15%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
10%
64-65°F
$85 Vol.
2%
66°F or higher
$85 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Chicago's August 24 low temperature reflects moderate uncertainty around model consensus for overnight radiative cooling.** Current National Weather Service and private forecasts point to a minimum near 60°F under mostly clear skies, light winds, and a stable high-pressure regime following northwest flow on August 23. These conditions favor efficient surface heat loss after sunset, though urban heat island effects, proximity to Lake Michigan, and dew-point levels near 55–60°F could moderate the drop. The closely matched leading outcomes (47°F or below at 35.5%, 58–59°F at 33.0%) highlight divergence among ensemble members on exact wind speeds and cloud cover timing, with historical late-August averages around 65°F providing context for the cooler anomaly. Updated model runs and evening observations ahead of the overnight period remain key catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$1,182End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Chicago's August 24 low temperature reflects moderate uncertainty around model consensus for overnight radiative cooling.** Current National Weather Service and private forecasts point to a minimum near 60°F under mostly clear skies, light winds, and a stable high-pressure regime following northwest flow on August 23. These conditions favor efficient surface heat loss after sunset, though urban heat island effects, proximity to Lake Michigan, and dew-point levels near 55–60°F could moderate the drop. The closely matched leading outcomes (47°F or below at 35.5%, 58–59°F at 33.0%) highlight divergence among ensemble members on exact wind speeds and cloud cover timing, with historical late-August averages around 65°F providing context for the cooler anomaly. Updated model runs and evening observations ahead of the overnight period remain key catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,182End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for Chicago's August 24 low temperature reflects moderate uncertainty around model consensus for overnight radiative cooling.** Current National Weather Service and private forecasts point to a minimum near 60°F under mostly clear skies, light winds, and a stable high-pressure regime following northwest flow on August 23. These conditions favor efficient surface heat loss after sunset, though urban heat island effects, proximity to Lake Michigan, and dew-point levels near 55–60°F could moderate the drop. The closely matched leading outcomes (47°F or below at 35.5%, 58–59°F at 33.0%) highlight divergence among ensemble members on exact wind speeds and cloud cover timing, with historical late-August averages around 65°F providing context for the cooler anomaly. Updated model runs and evening observations ahead of the overnight period remain key catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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