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icon for Lowest temperature in Chicago on August 23?

Lowest temperature in Chicago on August 23?

icon for Lowest temperature in Chicago on August 23?

Lowest temperature in Chicago on August 23?

Aug 23

Aug 24

Aug 23

Aug 24

51°F or below 83%

54-55°F 64%

56-57°F 64%

58-59°F 33%

Polymarket

$983 Vol.

51°F or below 83%

54-55°F 64%

56-57°F 64%

58-59°F 33%

Polymarket

$983 Vol.

51°F or below

$17 Vol.

83%

52-53°F

$18 Vol.

2%

54-55°F

$5 Vol.

64%

56-57°F

$5 Vol.

64%

58-59°F

$17 Vol.

33%

60-61°F

$220 Vol.

63%

62-63°F

$120 Vol.

<1%

64-65°F

$100 Vol.

<1%

66-67°F

$180 Vol.

<1%

68-69°F

$145 Vol.

<1%

70°F or higher

$155 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service forecasts for Chicago on August 23, 2026, project an overnight low in the low-to-mid 60s °F under mostly clear skies, directly supporting the 63% market-implied probability for the 60-61°F bucket. Radiative cooling overnight, moderated by Lake Michigan's thermal influence and light northwest winds, favors minimal temperature drop from daytime highs near 75-76°F. Historical August normals place the date's average low near 64°F, with recent model consensus showing little deviation from this baseline. The elevated 44% odds on 51°F or below reflect residual uncertainty in cloud cover or wind shifts that could enhance cooling, though current guidance indicates such outcomes remain unlikely before resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.

This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$983
End Date
Aug 23, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:28 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service forecasts for Chicago on August 23, 2026, project an overnight low in the low-to-mid 60s °F under mostly clear skies, directly supporting the 63% market-implied probability for the 60-61°F bucket. Radiative cooling overnight, moderated by Lake Michigan's thermal influence and light northwest winds, favors minimal temperature drop from daytime highs near 75-76°F. Historical August normals place the date's average low near 64°F, with recent model consensus showing little deviation from this baseline. The elevated 44% odds on 51°F or below reflect residual uncertainty in cloud cover or wind shifts that could enhance cooling, though current guidance indicates such outcomes remain unlikely before resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord

To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.

This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$983
End Date
Aug 23, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:28 AM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Lowest temperature in Chicago on August 23?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "60-61°F" at 63%, followed by "51°F or below" at 42%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 63¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 63% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Lowest temperature in Chicago on August 23?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 22, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Lowest temperature in Chicago on August 23?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Lowest temperature in Chicago on August 23?" is "60-61°F" at 63%, meaning the market assigns a 63% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "51°F or below" at 42%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Lowest temperature in Chicago on August 23?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.