Recent monsoon-driven rainfall and persistent cloud cover across the Pearl River Delta are the dominant near-term drivers keeping market-implied odds tightly clustered around 33–34 °C for Guangzhou’s August 24 maximum. Official guidance from regional models projects highs of 31–33 °C amid 60–80 % precipitation probability, which limits surface insolation and promotes evaporative cooling under high humidity. These conditions explain why 35 °C or higher trails slightly behind while lower outcomes remain low-probability. Forecast divergence among ensembles introduces the main uncertainty, with any break in cloud cover or reduced rainfall potentially shifting the peak upward before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Guangzhou on August 24?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 24?
34°C 35%
35°C or higher 29%
33°C 22%
32°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
2%
31°C
4%
32°C
7%
33°C
22%
34°C
35%
35°C or higher
29%
34°C 35%
35°C or higher 29%
33°C 22%
32°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
25°C or below
$618 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$260 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$419 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$255 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$744 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$416 Vol.
2%
31°C
$109 Vol.
4%
32°C
$392 Vol.
7%
33°C
$390 Vol.
22%
34°C
$369 Vol.
35%
35°C or higher
$3,184 Vol.
29%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent monsoon-driven rainfall and persistent cloud cover across the Pearl River Delta are the dominant near-term drivers keeping market-implied odds tightly clustered around 33–34 °C for Guangzhou’s August 24 maximum. Official guidance from regional models projects highs of 31–33 °C amid 60–80 % precipitation probability, which limits surface insolation and promotes evaporative cooling under high humidity. These conditions explain why 35 °C or higher trails slightly behind while lower outcomes remain low-probability. Forecast divergence among ensembles introduces the main uncertainty, with any break in cloud cover or reduced rainfall potentially shifting the peak upward before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$7,155End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent monsoon-driven rainfall and persistent cloud cover across the Pearl River Delta are the dominant near-term drivers keeping market-implied odds tightly clustered around 33–34 °C for Guangzhou’s August 24 maximum. Official guidance from regional models projects highs of 31–33 °C amid 60–80 % precipitation probability, which limits surface insolation and promotes evaporative cooling under high humidity. These conditions explain why 35 °C or higher trails slightly behind while lower outcomes remain low-probability. Forecast divergence among ensembles introduces the main uncertainty, with any break in cloud cover or reduced rainfall potentially shifting the peak upward before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,155End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monsoon-driven rainfall and persistent cloud cover across the Pearl River Delta are the dominant near-term drivers keeping market-implied odds tightly clustered around 33–34 °C for Guangzhou’s August 24 maximum. Official guidance from regional models projects highs of 31–33 °C amid 60–80 % precipitation probability, which limits surface insolation and promotes evaporative cooling under high humidity. These conditions explain why 35 °C or higher trails slightly behind while lower outcomes remain low-probability. Forecast divergence among ensembles introduces the main uncertainty, with any break in cloud cover or reduced rainfall potentially shifting the peak upward before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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