Recent forecasts from multiple models project Shanghai's August 26 high near 32–33°C under mostly cloudy skies and light easterly winds, consistent with late-summer subtropical conditions. This consensus supports the market's leading implied probabilities for 31°C and 32°C, reflecting typical diurnal ranges and modest variability around seasonal norms of roughly 29–31°C. Stable high pressure and absence of strong frontal systems or typhoon influences limit upside to 33°C or higher, while minimal cooling keeps sub-30°C outcomes improbable. Updated model runs through the next 48 hours remain the key data releases that could shift these trader-implied odds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on August 26?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 26?
31°C 47%
32°C 37%
33°C 11%
30°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
3%
30°C
8%
31°C
47%
32°C
37%
33°C
11%
34°C
3%
35°C
6%
36°C or higher
<1%
31°C 47%
32°C 37%
33°C 11%
30°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
26°C or below
$40 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$40 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$30 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$403 Vol.
3%
30°C
$211 Vol.
8%
31°C
$1,024 Vol.
47%
32°C
$119 Vol.
37%
33°C
$56 Vol.
11%
34°C
$207 Vol.
3%
35°C
$0 Vol.
6%
36°C or higher
$40 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models project Shanghai's August 26 high near 32–33°C under mostly cloudy skies and light easterly winds, consistent with late-summer subtropical conditions. This consensus supports the market's leading implied probabilities for 31°C and 32°C, reflecting typical diurnal ranges and modest variability around seasonal norms of roughly 29–31°C. Stable high pressure and absence of strong frontal systems or typhoon influences limit upside to 33°C or higher, while minimal cooling keeps sub-30°C outcomes improbable. Updated model runs through the next 48 hours remain the key data releases that could shift these trader-implied odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$2,141End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models project Shanghai's August 26 high near 32–33°C under mostly cloudy skies and light easterly winds, consistent with late-summer subtropical conditions. This consensus supports the market's leading implied probabilities for 31°C and 32°C, reflecting typical diurnal ranges and modest variability around seasonal norms of roughly 29–31°C. Stable high pressure and absence of strong frontal systems or typhoon influences limit upside to 33°C or higher, while minimal cooling keeps sub-30°C outcomes improbable. Updated model runs through the next 48 hours remain the key data releases that could shift these trader-implied odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,141End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models project Shanghai's August 26 high near 32–33°C under mostly cloudy skies and light easterly winds, consistent with late-summer subtropical conditions. This consensus supports the market's leading implied probabilities for 31°C and 32°C, reflecting typical diurnal ranges and modest variability around seasonal norms of roughly 29–31°C. Stable high pressure and absence of strong frontal systems or typhoon influences limit upside to 33°C or higher, while minimal cooling keeps sub-30°C outcomes improbable. Updated model runs through the next 48 hours remain the key data releases that could shift these trader-implied odds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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