Recent short-range ensemble forecasts from the GFS and European models, converging on daytime highs of 26–28 °C for Munich on August 26 under partly to mostly cloudy skies with light winds and a low risk of early showers, form the main driver behind the market’s clustering around these outcomes. These values align closely with seasonal climatology near 23–25 °C while reflecting modest warm-air advection and variable insolation that limit stronger warming or rapid cooling. Recent model runs show narrow spread after a period of stable, near-normal conditions across southern Germany, reducing the likelihood of outliers above 29 °C or below 25 °C. Traders therefore price the highest implied probabilities on 27 °C and 28 °C, consistent with official guidance from agencies such as the German Weather Service and observed trends in late-summer temperature variability. Updated model guidance expected within the next 24 hours could refine these probabilities as the event nears resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on August 26?
Highest temperature in Munich on August 26?
27°C 44%
28°C 25%
26°C 20%
25°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
21°C or below
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
10%
25°C
12%
26°C
20%
27°C
44%
28°C
25%
29°C
7%
30°C
6%
31°C or higher
3%
27°C 44%
28°C 25%
26°C 20%
25°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
22°C
$0 Vol.
1%
23°C
$50 Vol.
2%
24°C
$0 Vol.
10%
25°C
$156 Vol.
12%
26°C
$33 Vol.
20%
27°C
$11 Vol.
44%
28°C
$0 Vol.
25%
29°C
$0 Vol.
7%
30°C
$0 Vol.
6%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range ensemble forecasts from the GFS and European models, converging on daytime highs of 26–28 °C for Munich on August 26 under partly to mostly cloudy skies with light winds and a low risk of early showers, form the main driver behind the market’s clustering around these outcomes. These values align closely with seasonal climatology near 23–25 °C while reflecting modest warm-air advection and variable insolation that limit stronger warming or rapid cooling. Recent model runs show narrow spread after a period of stable, near-normal conditions across southern Germany, reducing the likelihood of outliers above 29 °C or below 25 °C. Traders therefore price the highest implied probabilities on 27 °C and 28 °C, consistent with official guidance from agencies such as the German Weather Service and observed trends in late-summer temperature variability. Updated model guidance expected within the next 24 hours could refine these probabilities as the event nears resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$249End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range ensemble forecasts from the GFS and European models, converging on daytime highs of 26–28 °C for Munich on August 26 under partly to mostly cloudy skies with light winds and a low risk of early showers, form the main driver behind the market’s clustering around these outcomes. These values align closely with seasonal climatology near 23–25 °C while reflecting modest warm-air advection and variable insolation that limit stronger warming or rapid cooling. Recent model runs show narrow spread after a period of stable, near-normal conditions across southern Germany, reducing the likelihood of outliers above 29 °C or below 25 °C. Traders therefore price the highest implied probabilities on 27 °C and 28 °C, consistent with official guidance from agencies such as the German Weather Service and observed trends in late-summer temperature variability. Updated model guidance expected within the next 24 hours could refine these probabilities as the event nears resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$249End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range ensemble forecasts from the GFS and European models, converging on daytime highs of 26–28 °C for Munich on August 26 under partly to mostly cloudy skies with light winds and a low risk of early showers, form the main driver behind the market’s clustering around these outcomes. These values align closely with seasonal climatology near 23–25 °C while reflecting modest warm-air advection and variable insolation that limit stronger warming or rapid cooling. Recent model runs show narrow spread after a period of stable, near-normal conditions across southern Germany, reducing the likelihood of outliers above 29 °C or below 25 °C. Traders therefore price the highest implied probabilities on 27 °C and 28 °C, consistent with official guidance from agencies such as the German Weather Service and observed trends in late-summer temperature variability. Updated model guidance expected within the next 24 hours could refine these probabilities as the event nears resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions