**Official forecasts position Toronto's August 25 high near the late-August climatological average of 25–26°C, but with notable day-to-day variability from cloud cover and showers that suppress maxima.** Environment Canada currently projects a mix of sun and cloud with a daytime high of 24°C and a 30% chance of showers overnight, aligning closely with recent model runs that show limited warming potential under unsettled conditions. This setup creates tight differentiation between the leading 24°C and 25°C outcomes, as modest shifts in solar radiation or precipitation timing can easily swing the observed maximum by 1–2°C. Historical analogs from similar late-summer patterns indicate that partial cloud decks often cap peaks 1–2°C below clear-sky potential, supporting the market's heavy weighting on these two bins while assigning lower probability to 26°C or higher. Updated guidance ahead of the peak heating period will be the key near-term catalyst for any rebalancing of implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Toronto on August 25?
Highest temperature in Toronto on August 25?
25°C 39%
24°C 35%
26°C 13%
23°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
19°C or below
4%
20°C
2%
21°C
1%
22°C
5%
23°C
7%
24°C
35%
25°C
39%
26°C
13%
27°C
1%
28°C
6%
29°C or higher
2%
25°C 39%
24°C 35%
26°C 13%
23°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
19°C or below
$5 Vol.
4%
20°C
$5 Vol.
2%
21°C
$5 Vol.
1%
22°C
$0 Vol.
5%
23°C
$0 Vol.
7%
24°C
$2 Vol.
35%
25°C
$5 Vol.
39%
26°C
$43 Vol.
13%
27°C
$25 Vol.
1%
28°C
$5 Vol.
6%
29°C or higher
$5 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts position Toronto's August 25 high near the late-August climatological average of 25–26°C, but with notable day-to-day variability from cloud cover and showers that suppress maxima.** Environment Canada currently projects a mix of sun and cloud with a daytime high of 24°C and a 30% chance of showers overnight, aligning closely with recent model runs that show limited warming potential under unsettled conditions.
This setup creates tight differentiation between the leading 24°C and 25°C outcomes, as modest shifts in solar radiation or precipitation timing can easily swing the observed maximum by 1–2°C. Historical analogs from similar late-summer patterns indicate that partial cloud decks often cap peaks 1–2°C below clear-sky potential, supporting the market's heavy weighting on these two bins while assigning lower probability to 26°C or higher. Updated guidance ahead of the peak heating period will be the key near-term catalyst for any rebalancing of implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$100End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts position Toronto's August 25 high near the late-August climatological average of 25–26°C, but with notable day-to-day variability from cloud cover and showers that suppress maxima.** Environment Canada currently projects a mix of sun and cloud with a daytime high of 24°C and a 30% chance of showers overnight, aligning closely with recent model runs that show limited warming potential under unsettled conditions.
This setup creates tight differentiation between the leading 24°C and 25°C outcomes, as modest shifts in solar radiation or precipitation timing can easily swing the observed maximum by 1–2°C. Historical analogs from similar late-summer patterns indicate that partial cloud decks often cap peaks 1–2°C below clear-sky potential, supporting the market's heavy weighting on these two bins while assigning lower probability to 26°C or higher. Updated guidance ahead of the peak heating period will be the key near-term catalyst for any rebalancing of implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$100End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official forecasts position Toronto's August 25 high near the late-August climatological average of 25–26°C, but with notable day-to-day variability from cloud cover and showers that suppress maxima.** Environment Canada currently projects a mix of sun and cloud with a daytime high of 24°C and a 30% chance of showers overnight, aligning closely with recent model runs that show limited warming potential under unsettled conditions. This setup creates tight differentiation between the leading 24°C and 25°C outcomes, as modest shifts in solar radiation or precipitation timing can easily swing the observed maximum by 1–2°C. Historical analogs from similar late-summer patterns indicate that partial cloud decks often cap peaks 1–2°C below clear-sky potential, supporting the market's heavy weighting on these two bins while assigning lower probability to 26°C or higher. Updated guidance ahead of the peak heating period will be the key near-term catalyst for any rebalancing of implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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