Recent forecasts from NOAA and AccuWeather place New York City’s August 25 high near 78–81 °F, with model consensus split between a weak high-pressure ridge allowing modest warming and a subtle onshore flow or increased cloud cover that caps readings. These conditions explain why the 78–79 °F and 80–81 °F bins dominate trader sentiment at roughly 40 % and 35 % implied probability. Key differentiating factors include the precise timing of any sea-breeze development, afternoon humidity levels that modulate the urban heat island, and small errors in boundary-layer mixing within short-range models. Historical Central Park data show late-August maxima average near 83 °F, so current guidance reflects a modest cool anomaly whose resolution hinges on the next National Weather Service update.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on August 25?
Highest temperature in NYC on August 25?
78-79°F 41%
80-81°F 35%
76-77°F 16%
82-83°F 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
67°F or below
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
2%
72-73°F
3%
74-75°F
5%
76-77°F
16%
78-79°F
41%
80-81°F
35%
82-83°F
8%
84-85°F
2%
86°F or higher
2%
78-79°F 41%
80-81°F 35%
76-77°F 16%
82-83°F 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
67°F or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$5 Vol.
2%
72-73°F
$5 Vol.
3%
74-75°F
$2 Vol.
5%
76-77°F
$6 Vol.
16%
78-79°F
$112 Vol.
41%
80-81°F
$24 Vol.
35%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
8%
84-85°F
$50 Vol.
2%
86°F or higher
$5 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from NOAA and AccuWeather place New York City’s August 25 high near 78–81 °F, with model consensus split between a weak high-pressure ridge allowing modest warming and a subtle onshore flow or increased cloud cover that caps readings. These conditions explain why the 78–79 °F and 80–81 °F bins dominate trader sentiment at roughly 40 % and 35 % implied probability. Key differentiating factors include the precise timing of any sea-breeze development, afternoon humidity levels that modulate the urban heat island, and small errors in boundary-layer mixing within short-range models. Historical Central Park data show late-August maxima average near 83 °F, so current guidance reflects a modest cool anomaly whose resolution hinges on the next National Weather Service update.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$209End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from NOAA and AccuWeather place New York City’s August 25 high near 78–81 °F, with model consensus split between a weak high-pressure ridge allowing modest warming and a subtle onshore flow or increased cloud cover that caps readings. These conditions explain why the 78–79 °F and 80–81 °F bins dominate trader sentiment at roughly 40 % and 35 % implied probability. Key differentiating factors include the precise timing of any sea-breeze development, afternoon humidity levels that modulate the urban heat island, and small errors in boundary-layer mixing within short-range models. Historical Central Park data show late-August maxima average near 83 °F, so current guidance reflects a modest cool anomaly whose resolution hinges on the next National Weather Service update.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$209End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from NOAA and AccuWeather place New York City’s August 25 high near 78–81 °F, with model consensus split between a weak high-pressure ridge allowing modest warming and a subtle onshore flow or increased cloud cover that caps readings. These conditions explain why the 78–79 °F and 80–81 °F bins dominate trader sentiment at roughly 40 % and 35 % implied probability. Key differentiating factors include the precise timing of any sea-breeze development, afternoon humidity levels that modulate the urban heat island, and small errors in boundary-layer mixing within short-range models. Historical Central Park data show late-August maxima average near 83 °F, so current guidance reflects a modest cool anomaly whose resolution hinges on the next National Weather Service update.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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