Latest ensemble forecasts from major models position a daily maximum near 14–15°C as the most probable outcome for Buenos Aires on August 25, driven by northeasterly advection of mild maritime air under building high pressure and increasing mid-level cloud cover. Recent runs show afternoon temperatures peaking around 13–15°C (roughly 55–59°F) with light winds and minimal mixing, consistent with late-winter climatology for the region. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied probabilities aligns closely with this narrow range, as higher or lower extremes would require unexpected shifts in steering flow or radiative cooling under clearer skies. Updated model guidance and surface observations over the next 24 hours remain the key variables that could refine these odds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Buenos Aires on August 25?
Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on August 25?
15°C 40%
14°C 21%
13°C 14%
16°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
9°C or below
3%
10°C
3%
11°C
2%
12°C
6%
13°C
14%
14°C
21%
15°C
40%
16°C
10%
17°C
3%
18°C
2%
19°C or higher
2%
15°C 40%
14°C 21%
13°C 14%
16°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
9°C or below
$5 Vol.
3%
10°C
$5 Vol.
3%
11°C
$5 Vol.
2%
12°C
$0 Vol.
6%
13°C
$0 Vol.
14%
14°C
$0 Vol.
21%
15°C
$57 Vol.
40%
16°C
$13 Vol.
10%
17°C
$10 Vol.
3%
18°C
$5 Vol.
2%
19°C or higher
$5 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from major models position a daily maximum near 14–15°C as the most probable outcome for Buenos Aires on August 25, driven by northeasterly advection of mild maritime air under building high pressure and increasing mid-level cloud cover. Recent runs show afternoon temperatures peaking around 13–15°C (roughly 55–59°F) with light winds and minimal mixing, consistent with late-winter climatology for the region. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied probabilities aligns closely with this narrow range, as higher or lower extremes would require unexpected shifts in steering flow or radiative cooling under clearer skies. Updated model guidance and surface observations over the next 24 hours remain the key variables that could refine these odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 8:55 PM ET
Volume
$91End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saezResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from major models position a daily maximum near 14–15°C as the most probable outcome for Buenos Aires on August 25, driven by northeasterly advection of mild maritime air under building high pressure and increasing mid-level cloud cover. Recent runs show afternoon temperatures peaking around 13–15°C (roughly 55–59°F) with light winds and minimal mixing, consistent with late-winter climatology for the region. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied probabilities aligns closely with this narrow range, as higher or lower extremes would require unexpected shifts in steering flow or radiative cooling under clearer skies. Updated model guidance and surface observations over the next 24 hours remain the key variables that could refine these odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$91End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saezResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from major models position a daily maximum near 14–15°C as the most probable outcome for Buenos Aires on August 25, driven by northeasterly advection of mild maritime air under building high pressure and increasing mid-level cloud cover. Recent runs show afternoon temperatures peaking around 13–15°C (roughly 55–59°F) with light winds and minimal mixing, consistent with late-winter climatology for the region. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied probabilities aligns closely with this narrow range, as higher or lower extremes would require unexpected shifts in steering flow or radiative cooling under clearer skies. Updated model guidance and surface observations over the next 24 hours remain the key variables that could refine these odds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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