**NYC's August 2026 precipitation total has already reached 8.04 inches by late August due to repeated heavy thunderstorm episodes, far exceeding the long-term average of roughly 4.5–4.6 inches.** Frequent convective storms fueled by a persistent tropical airmass and high humidity have produced multiple rounds of intense rainfall, including flash-flood events around August 3 and more than 2 inches across much of the city on August 20. These conditions reflect an active pattern of moisture transport and instability rather than a single extreme event. With only a handful of days remaining in the month and additional showers or storms still possible in the forecast, the accumulated total is positioned to finish well above 6 inches. Trader consensus reflected in the >6" outcome at 56% incorporates this observed surplus plus climatological expectations for continued late-month activity, while lower bins remain improbable given the verified data from official monitoring. Historical analogs show that such wet Augusts typically result from sustained above-average thunderstorm frequency rather than tropical cyclone landfalls.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPrecipitation in NYC in August?
Precipitation in NYC in August?
>6" 97%
4-5" 2.8%
3-4" 2.3%
2-3" <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<2"
<1%
2-3"
<1%
3-4"
2%
4-5"
3%
5-6"
<1%
>6"
75%
>6" 97%
4-5" 2.8%
3-4" 2.3%
2-3" <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<2"
$1,113 Vol.
<1%
2-3"
$454 Vol.
<1%
3-4"
$137 Vol.
2%
4-5"
$147 Vol.
3%
5-6"
$190 Vol.
<1%
>6"
$435 Vol.
75%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for August 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**NYC's August 2026 precipitation total has already reached 8.04 inches by late August due to repeated heavy thunderstorm episodes, far exceeding the long-term average of roughly 4.5–4.6 inches.** Frequent convective storms fueled by a persistent tropical airmass and high humidity have produced multiple rounds of intense rainfall, including flash-flood events around August 3 and more than 2 inches across much of the city on August 20. These conditions reflect an active pattern of moisture transport and instability rather than a single extreme event.
With only a handful of days remaining in the month and additional showers or storms still possible in the forecast, the accumulated total is positioned to finish well above 6 inches. Trader consensus reflected in the >6" outcome at 56% incorporates this observed surplus plus climatological expectations for continued late-month activity, while lower bins remain improbable given the verified data from official monitoring. Historical analogs show that such wet Augusts typically result from sustained above-average thunderstorm frequency rather than tropical cyclone landfalls.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for August 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for August 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ET
Volume
$2,476End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for August 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**NYC's August 2026 precipitation total has already reached 8.04 inches by late August due to repeated heavy thunderstorm episodes, far exceeding the long-term average of roughly 4.5–4.6 inches.** Frequent convective storms fueled by a persistent tropical airmass and high humidity have produced multiple rounds of intense rainfall, including flash-flood events around August 3 and more than 2 inches across much of the city on August 20. These conditions reflect an active pattern of moisture transport and instability rather than a single extreme event.
With only a handful of days remaining in the month and additional showers or storms still possible in the forecast, the accumulated total is positioned to finish well above 6 inches. Trader consensus reflected in the >6" outcome at 56% incorporates this observed surplus plus climatological expectations for continued late-month activity, while lower bins remain improbable given the verified data from official monitoring. Historical analogs show that such wet Augusts typically result from sustained above-average thunderstorm frequency rather than tropical cyclone landfalls.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between August 1 and August 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for August 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for August 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of August 2026.
If the relevant data is not available by November 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,476End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 2:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**NYC's August 2026 precipitation total has already reached 8.04 inches by late August due to repeated heavy thunderstorm episodes, far exceeding the long-term average of roughly 4.5–4.6 inches.** Frequent convective storms fueled by a persistent tropical airmass and high humidity have produced multiple rounds of intense rainfall, including flash-flood events around August 3 and more than 2 inches across much of the city on August 20. These conditions reflect an active pattern of moisture transport and instability rather than a single extreme event. With only a handful of days remaining in the month and additional showers or storms still possible in the forecast, the accumulated total is positioned to finish well above 6 inches. Trader consensus reflected in the >6" outcome at 56% incorporates this observed surplus plus climatological expectations for continued late-month activity, while lower bins remain improbable given the verified data from official monitoring. Historical analogs show that such wet Augusts typically result from sustained above-average thunderstorm frequency rather than tropical cyclone landfalls.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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