Persistent low-pressure trough over the northern South China Sea combined with effects from Tropical Storm Narra are driving increased cloud cover, showers, and squally thunderstorms across Hong Kong on August 25, limiting solar insolation and capping daytime maxima. Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance points to a 26–30°C range under south to southwest winds of 4–5, occasionally gustier offshore, with humidity 75–95%. These conditions favor lower outcomes near 29–30°C, yet trader sentiment clusters around 30–32°C amid model spread on rainfall timing and any brief clear intervals that could allow brief warming. High baseline moisture and onshore flow further suppress extremes relative to climatology. Updated model runs and HKO briefings ahead of the 25th will refine resolution probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on August 25?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 25?
31°C 29%
30°C 27%
32°C 22%
29°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
25°C or below
2%
26°C
8%
27°C
10%
28°C
13%
29°C
18%
30°C
27%
31°C
29%
32°C
22%
33°C
8%
34°C
2%
35°C or higher
7%
31°C 29%
30°C 27%
32°C 22%
29°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
25°C or below
$10 Vol.
2%
26°C
$10 Vol.
8%
27°C
$45 Vol.
10%
28°C
$40 Vol.
13%
29°C
$20 Vol.
18%
30°C
$0 Vol.
27%
31°C
$70 Vol.
29%
32°C
$125 Vol.
22%
33°C
$95 Vol.
8%
34°C
$122 Vol.
2%
35°C or higher
$5 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Persistent low-pressure trough over the northern South China Sea combined with effects from Tropical Storm Narra are driving increased cloud cover, showers, and squally thunderstorms across Hong Kong on August 25, limiting solar insolation and capping daytime maxima. Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance points to a 26–30°C range under south to southwest winds of 4–5, occasionally gustier offshore, with humidity 75–95%. These conditions favor lower outcomes near 29–30°C, yet trader sentiment clusters around 30–32°C amid model spread on rainfall timing and any brief clear intervals that could allow brief warming. High baseline moisture and onshore flow further suppress extremes relative to climatology. Updated model runs and HKO briefings ahead of the 25th will refine resolution probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$543End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Persistent low-pressure trough over the northern South China Sea combined with effects from Tropical Storm Narra are driving increased cloud cover, showers, and squally thunderstorms across Hong Kong on August 25, limiting solar insolation and capping daytime maxima. Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance points to a 26–30°C range under south to southwest winds of 4–5, occasionally gustier offshore, with humidity 75–95%. These conditions favor lower outcomes near 29–30°C, yet trader sentiment clusters around 30–32°C amid model spread on rainfall timing and any brief clear intervals that could allow brief warming. High baseline moisture and onshore flow further suppress extremes relative to climatology. Updated model runs and HKO briefings ahead of the 25th will refine resolution probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$543End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent low-pressure trough over the northern South China Sea combined with effects from Tropical Storm Narra are driving increased cloud cover, showers, and squally thunderstorms across Hong Kong on August 25, limiting solar insolation and capping daytime maxima. Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance points to a 26–30°C range under south to southwest winds of 4–5, occasionally gustier offshore, with humidity 75–95%. These conditions favor lower outcomes near 29–30°C, yet trader sentiment clusters around 30–32°C amid model spread on rainfall timing and any brief clear intervals that could allow brief warming. High baseline moisture and onshore flow further suppress extremes relative to climatology. Updated model runs and HKO briefings ahead of the 25th will refine resolution probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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