Record-low 2026 winter maximum sea ice extent of 14.29 million sq km, combined with early melt onset and above-average spring temperatures along the Atlantic and Siberian margins, has positioned the summer minimum near 4.4–4.6 million sq km as the market’s leading outcome at 37%. Thin first-year ice from the weak winter growth season is more vulnerable to rapid summer loss under continued Arctic amplification, while current mid-August extent rankings (8th–12th lowest) and model trajectories align with a September minimum in that bin. Forecasters note that unpredictable August weather patterns introduce remaining uncertainty, with updated model runs and daily NSIDC/JAXA observations the key near-term drivers of trader reassessment before the typical early-to-mid-September minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
4.4-4.6m sq km 31.1%
4.6-4.8m sq km 21.9%
4.2-4.4m sq km 18.0%
4.0-4.2m sq km 11.0%
$68,703 Vol.
$68,703 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<4m sq km
9%
4.0-4.2m sq km
11%
4.2-4.4m sq km
13%
4.4-4.6m sq km
39%
4.6-4.8m sq km
22%
4.8-5m sq km
5%
5m+ sq km
4%
4.4-4.6m sq km 31.1%
4.6-4.8m sq km 21.9%
4.2-4.4m sq km 18.0%
4.0-4.2m sq km 11.0%
$68,703 Vol.
$68,703 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<4m sq km
$30,880 Vol.
9%
4.0-4.2m sq km
$6,688 Vol.
11%
4.2-4.4m sq km
$3,116 Vol.
13%
4.4-4.6m sq km
$3,133 Vol.
39%
4.6-4.8m sq km
$6,828 Vol.
22%
4.8-5m sq km
$3,555 Vol.
5%
5m+ sq km
$14,503 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low 2026 winter maximum sea ice extent of 14.29 million sq km, combined with early melt onset and above-average spring temperatures along the Atlantic and Siberian margins, has positioned the summer minimum near 4.4–4.6 million sq km as the market’s leading outcome at 37%. Thin first-year ice from the weak winter growth season is more vulnerable to rapid summer loss under continued Arctic amplification, while current mid-August extent rankings (8th–12th lowest) and model trajectories align with a September minimum in that bin. Forecasters note that unpredictable August weather patterns introduce remaining uncertainty, with updated model runs and daily NSIDC/JAXA observations the key near-term drivers of trader reassessment before the typical early-to-mid-September minimum.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$68,703End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low 2026 winter maximum sea ice extent of 14.29 million sq km, combined with early melt onset and above-average spring temperatures along the Atlantic and Siberian margins, has positioned the summer minimum near 4.4–4.6 million sq km as the market’s leading outcome at 37%. Thin first-year ice from the weak winter growth season is more vulnerable to rapid summer loss under continued Arctic amplification, while current mid-August extent rankings (8th–12th lowest) and model trajectories align with a September minimum in that bin. Forecasters note that unpredictable August weather patterns introduce remaining uncertainty, with updated model runs and daily NSIDC/JAXA observations the key near-term drivers of trader reassessment before the typical early-to-mid-September minimum.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$68,703End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Record-low 2026 winter maximum sea ice extent of 14.29 million sq km, combined with early melt onset and above-average spring temperatures along the Atlantic and Siberian margins, has positioned the summer minimum near 4.4–4.6 million sq km as the market’s leading outcome at 37%. Thin first-year ice from the weak winter growth season is more vulnerable to rapid summer loss under continued Arctic amplification, while current mid-August extent rankings (8th–12th lowest) and model trajectories align with a September minimum in that bin. Forecasters note that unpredictable August weather patterns introduce remaining uncertainty, with updated model runs and daily NSIDC/JAXA observations the key near-term drivers of trader reassessment before the typical early-to-mid-September minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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