**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Wellington on August 24 reflects tight clustering of latest forecast ensembles around 8–10°C, with no single value dominating due to minor model variations in overnight radiative cooling.** Clear to mostly clear skies under a building high-pressure ridge favor efficient heat loss after sunset, but moderate to strong northwesterly winds (15–25 kt) promote mixing that limits how far surface temperatures drop. Dew points near 6–8°C and mild air advection from the northwest keep the environment above freezing, consistent with typical late-winter conditions where average overnight lows sit near 8–9°C. Ensemble spreads arise mainly from small differences in forecast wind timing, boundary-layer moisture, and exact cloud cover during the coldest pre-dawn hours; these produce the observed 7–11°C range across runs. Recent observations from the prior 24–48 hours show similar stable, dry northwesterly flow with minima around 7–11°C, reinforcing the market-implied distribution without strong directional bias toward any single outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on August 24?
7°C 52%
8°C 31%
10°C 31%
9°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
5°C or below
2%
6°C
2%
7°C
52%
8°C
31%
9°C
28%
10°C
31%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C or higher
<1%
7°C 52%
8°C 31%
10°C 31%
9°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
5°C or below
$5 Vol.
2%
6°C
$74 Vol.
2%
7°C
$84 Vol.
52%
8°C
$0 Vol.
31%
9°C
$0 Vol.
28%
10°C
$0 Vol.
31%
11°C
$157 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$484 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$335 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$481 Vol.
<1%
15°C or higher
$150 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Wellington on August 24 reflects tight clustering of latest forecast ensembles around 8–10°C, with no single value dominating due to minor model variations in overnight radiative cooling.**
Clear to mostly clear skies under a building high-pressure ridge favor efficient heat loss after sunset, but moderate to strong northwesterly winds (15–25 kt) promote mixing that limits how far surface temperatures drop. Dew points near 6–8°C and mild air advection from the northwest keep the environment above freezing, consistent with typical late-winter conditions where average overnight lows sit near 8–9°C.
Ensemble spreads arise mainly from small differences in forecast wind timing, boundary-layer moisture, and exact cloud cover during the coldest pre-dawn hours; these produce the observed 7–11°C range across runs. Recent observations from the prior 24–48 hours show similar stable, dry northwesterly flow with minima around 7–11°C, reinforcing the market-implied distribution without strong directional bias toward any single outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,770End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Wellington on August 24 reflects tight clustering of latest forecast ensembles around 8–10°C, with no single value dominating due to minor model variations in overnight radiative cooling.**
Clear to mostly clear skies under a building high-pressure ridge favor efficient heat loss after sunset, but moderate to strong northwesterly winds (15–25 kt) promote mixing that limits how far surface temperatures drop. Dew points near 6–8°C and mild air advection from the northwest keep the environment above freezing, consistent with typical late-winter conditions where average overnight lows sit near 8–9°C.
Ensemble spreads arise mainly from small differences in forecast wind timing, boundary-layer moisture, and exact cloud cover during the coldest pre-dawn hours; these produce the observed 7–11°C range across runs. Recent observations from the prior 24–48 hours show similar stable, dry northwesterly flow with minima around 7–11°C, reinforcing the market-implied distribution without strong directional bias toward any single outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,770End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in Wellington on August 24 reflects tight clustering of latest forecast ensembles around 8–10°C, with no single value dominating due to minor model variations in overnight radiative cooling.** Clear to mostly clear skies under a building high-pressure ridge favor efficient heat loss after sunset, but moderate to strong northwesterly winds (15–25 kt) promote mixing that limits how far surface temperatures drop. Dew points near 6–8°C and mild air advection from the northwest keep the environment above freezing, consistent with typical late-winter conditions where average overnight lows sit near 8–9°C. Ensemble spreads arise mainly from small differences in forecast wind timing, boundary-layer moisture, and exact cloud cover during the coldest pre-dawn hours; these produce the observed 7–11°C range across runs. Recent observations from the prior 24–48 hours show similar stable, dry northwesterly flow with minima around 7–11°C, reinforcing the market-implied distribution without strong directional bias toward any single outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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