Current numerical weather prediction models from MetService, the UK Met Office, and others converge on a daytime high of 14–16°C for Wellington on August 25, with 15°C as the most common point forecast under mainly fine conditions and brisk northwesterlies. This places the market's leading 16°C outcome (47.5% implied probability) slightly above the long-term August average of roughly 13–14°C, reflecting trader assessment of ensemble spread and potential for mild Tasman Sea air advection. Northwesterlies often elevate temperatures several degrees above climatology, while any earlier southerly shift could cap readings nearer 15°C or below; seasonal NIWA outlooks favor near-average conditions overall, but short-term guidance shows limited downside risk below 14°C given the current pattern. Updated model runs and observational adjustments in the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 25?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 25?
16°C 48%
17°C 25%
15°C 22%
18°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
4%
15°C
22%
16°C
48%
17°C
25%
18°C
6%
19°C
4%
20°C or higher
<1%
16°C 48%
17°C 25%
15°C 22%
18°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
10°C or below
$239 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$239 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$239 Vol.
1%
13°C
$252 Vol.
1%
14°C
$274 Vol.
4%
15°C
$585 Vol.
22%
16°C
$540 Vol.
48%
17°C
$498 Vol.
25%
18°C
$252 Vol.
6%
19°C
$5 Vol.
4%
20°C or higher
$269 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models from MetService, the UK Met Office, and others converge on a daytime high of 14–16°C for Wellington on August 25, with 15°C as the most common point forecast under mainly fine conditions and brisk northwesterlies. This places the market's leading 16°C outcome (47.5% implied probability) slightly above the long-term August average of roughly 13–14°C, reflecting trader assessment of ensemble spread and potential for mild Tasman Sea air advection. Northwesterlies often elevate temperatures several degrees above climatology, while any earlier southerly shift could cap readings nearer 15°C or below; seasonal NIWA outlooks favor near-average conditions overall, but short-term guidance shows limited downside risk below 14°C given the current pattern. Updated model runs and observational adjustments in the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$3,391End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models from MetService, the UK Met Office, and others converge on a daytime high of 14–16°C for Wellington on August 25, with 15°C as the most common point forecast under mainly fine conditions and brisk northwesterlies. This places the market's leading 16°C outcome (47.5% implied probability) slightly above the long-term August average of roughly 13–14°C, reflecting trader assessment of ensemble spread and potential for mild Tasman Sea air advection. Northwesterlies often elevate temperatures several degrees above climatology, while any earlier southerly shift could cap readings nearer 15°C or below; seasonal NIWA outlooks favor near-average conditions overall, but short-term guidance shows limited downside risk below 14°C given the current pattern. Updated model runs and observational adjustments in the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,391End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current numerical weather prediction models from MetService, the UK Met Office, and others converge on a daytime high of 14–16°C for Wellington on August 25, with 15°C as the most common point forecast under mainly fine conditions and brisk northwesterlies. This places the market's leading 16°C outcome (47.5% implied probability) slightly above the long-term August average of roughly 13–14°C, reflecting trader assessment of ensemble spread and potential for mild Tasman Sea air advection. Northwesterlies often elevate temperatures several degrees above climatology, while any earlier southerly shift could cap readings nearer 15°C or below; seasonal NIWA outlooks favor near-average conditions overall, but short-term guidance shows limited downside risk below 14°C given the current pattern. Updated model runs and observational adjustments in the next 48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions