Recent forecasts from MetService and other models indicate a mild overnight period for Wellington on August 25, driven by northerly to northwesterly winds advecting warmer maritime air under a building high-pressure ridge. These conditions limit radiative cooling, supporting minimum temperatures near 11–12°C, consistent with the closely matched market-implied odds around those levels. Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover that could enhance or suppress heat loss, minor shifts in wind speed through Cook Strait, and any late shower timing. Historical August averages feature lower minima, but current patterns reflect above-normal temperatures amid neutral ENSO influences. Updated model runs and official briefings ahead of the date will clarify any adjustments from these baselines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on August 25?
8°C or below 39%
18°C or higher 39%
12°C 32%
13°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
8°C or below
39%
9°C
26%
10°C
22%
11°C
29%
12°C
32%
13°C
30%
14°C
24%
15°C
1%
16°C
7%
17°C
1%
18°C or higher
39%
8°C or below 39%
18°C or higher 39%
12°C 32%
13°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
8°C or below
$5 Vol.
39%
9°C
$0 Vol.
26%
10°C
$0 Vol.
22%
11°C
$0 Vol.
29%
12°C
$0 Vol.
32%
13°C
$0 Vol.
30%
14°C
$1 Vol.
24%
15°C
$5 Vol.
1%
16°C
$5 Vol.
7%
17°C
$5 Vol.
1%
18°C or higher
$5 Vol.
39%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from MetService and other models indicate a mild overnight period for Wellington on August 25, driven by northerly to northwesterly winds advecting warmer maritime air under a building high-pressure ridge. These conditions limit radiative cooling, supporting minimum temperatures near 11–12°C, consistent with the closely matched market-implied odds around those levels. Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover that could enhance or suppress heat loss, minor shifts in wind speed through Cook Strait, and any late shower timing. Historical August averages feature lower minima, but current patterns reflect above-normal temperatures amid neutral ENSO influences. Updated model runs and official briefings ahead of the date will clarify any adjustments from these baselines.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$26End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from MetService and other models indicate a mild overnight period for Wellington on August 25, driven by northerly to northwesterly winds advecting warmer maritime air under a building high-pressure ridge. These conditions limit radiative cooling, supporting minimum temperatures near 11–12°C, consistent with the closely matched market-implied odds around those levels. Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover that could enhance or suppress heat loss, minor shifts in wind speed through Cook Strait, and any late shower timing. Historical August averages feature lower minima, but current patterns reflect above-normal temperatures amid neutral ENSO influences. Updated model runs and official briefings ahead of the date will clarify any adjustments from these baselines.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$26End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from MetService and other models indicate a mild overnight period for Wellington on August 25, driven by northerly to northwesterly winds advecting warmer maritime air under a building high-pressure ridge. These conditions limit radiative cooling, supporting minimum temperatures near 11–12°C, consistent with the closely matched market-implied odds around those levels. Differentiating factors include variable cloud cover that could enhance or suppress heat loss, minor shifts in wind speed through Cook Strait, and any late shower timing. Historical August averages feature lower minima, but current patterns reflect above-normal temperatures amid neutral ENSO influences. Updated model runs and official briefings ahead of the date will clarify any adjustments from these baselines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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