**Persistent subtropical summer conditions in Miami, driven by high atmospheric moisture and minimal overnight radiative cooling, position the 78–82°F range as the dominant outcomes for the lowest temperature on August 24.** Official guidance from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather shows overnight lows typically settling between 78°F and 82°F under partly cloudy skies with scattered thunderstorms and light southerly flow. Recent observations confirm this pattern, with actual lows of 78–81°F in the preceding days amid a broader heat episode that produced record daytime highs near 100°F but left nighttime temperatures largely unaffected due to elevated dew points and tropical air mass dominance. Model consensus indicates no incoming cold front or significant steering changes that would enhance cooling, keeping the distribution centered on 80–81°F (market-implied 44.5%) and 78–79°F (30.0%). These align closely with Miami’s August climatology, where daily lows average near 78°F and rarely dip below 74°F absent unusual synoptic shifts. Traders appear to be weighting the latest short-range guidance, which shows stable conditions through the 24th with limited upside for cooler readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Miami on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Miami on August 24?
80-81°F 45%
78-79°F 30%
82-83°F 12%
76-77°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
69°F or below
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
4%
76-77°F
11%
78-79°F
30%
80-81°F
45%
82-83°F
12%
84-85°F
1%
86-87°F
<1%
88°F or higher
<1%
80-81°F 45%
78-79°F 30%
82-83°F 12%
76-77°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
69°F or below
$17 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$17 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$117 Vol.
1%
74-75°F
$55 Vol.
4%
76-77°F
$48 Vol.
11%
78-79°F
$55 Vol.
30%
80-81°F
$194 Vol.
45%
82-83°F
$16 Vol.
12%
84-85°F
$79 Vol.
1%
86-87°F
$281 Vol.
<1%
88°F or higher
$181 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent subtropical summer conditions in Miami, driven by high atmospheric moisture and minimal overnight radiative cooling, position the 78–82°F range as the dominant outcomes for the lowest temperature on August 24.**
Official guidance from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather shows overnight lows typically settling between 78°F and 82°F under partly cloudy skies with scattered thunderstorms and light southerly flow. Recent observations confirm this pattern, with actual lows of 78–81°F in the preceding days amid a broader heat episode that produced record daytime highs near 100°F but left nighttime temperatures largely unaffected due to elevated dew points and tropical air mass dominance.
Model consensus indicates no incoming cold front or significant steering changes that would enhance cooling, keeping the distribution centered on 80–81°F (market-implied 44.5%) and 78–79°F (30.0%). These align closely with Miami’s August climatology, where daily lows average near 78°F and rarely dip below 74°F absent unusual synoptic shifts. Traders appear to be weighting the latest short-range guidance, which shows stable conditions through the 24th with limited upside for cooler readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$1,059End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent subtropical summer conditions in Miami, driven by high atmospheric moisture and minimal overnight radiative cooling, position the 78–82°F range as the dominant outcomes for the lowest temperature on August 24.**
Official guidance from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather shows overnight lows typically settling between 78°F and 82°F under partly cloudy skies with scattered thunderstorms and light southerly flow. Recent observations confirm this pattern, with actual lows of 78–81°F in the preceding days amid a broader heat episode that produced record daytime highs near 100°F but left nighttime temperatures largely unaffected due to elevated dew points and tropical air mass dominance.
Model consensus indicates no incoming cold front or significant steering changes that would enhance cooling, keeping the distribution centered on 80–81°F (market-implied 44.5%) and 78–79°F (30.0%). These align closely with Miami’s August climatology, where daily lows average near 78°F and rarely dip below 74°F absent unusual synoptic shifts. Traders appear to be weighting the latest short-range guidance, which shows stable conditions through the 24th with limited upside for cooler readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,059End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent subtropical summer conditions in Miami, driven by high atmospheric moisture and minimal overnight radiative cooling, position the 78–82°F range as the dominant outcomes for the lowest temperature on August 24.** Official guidance from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather shows overnight lows typically settling between 78°F and 82°F under partly cloudy skies with scattered thunderstorms and light southerly flow. Recent observations confirm this pattern, with actual lows of 78–81°F in the preceding days amid a broader heat episode that produced record daytime highs near 100°F but left nighttime temperatures largely unaffected due to elevated dew points and tropical air mass dominance. Model consensus indicates no incoming cold front or significant steering changes that would enhance cooling, keeping the distribution centered on 80–81°F (market-implied 44.5%) and 78–79°F (30.0%). These align closely with Miami’s August climatology, where daily lows average near 78°F and rarely dip below 74°F absent unusual synoptic shifts. Traders appear to be weighting the latest short-range guidance, which shows stable conditions through the 24th with limited upside for cooler readings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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