Forecasts from Brazil’s CPTEC and INMET place São Paulo’s August 25 maximum near the climatological average of 22–23 °C, consistent with the market’s tight clustering around those two outcomes. A stable subtropical high and limited frontal activity support modest daytime warming under partly cloudy skies, while any increase in low-level moisture or earlier sea-breeze onset could cap readings at 22 °C. Conversely, clearer skies and slightly stronger northerly flow would favor the 23 °C threshold. Model spread in the final 24-hour guidance and local urban heat-island variability keep the two leading contracts closely matched, with resolution hinging on the official INMET station reading.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 25?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on August 25?
22°C 32%
23°C 25%
21°C 17%
20°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
18°C or below
2%
19°C
12%
20°C
14%
21°C
17%
22°C
32%
23°C
25%
24°C
5%
25°C
5%
26°C
7%
27°C
2%
28°C or higher
2%
22°C 32%
23°C 25%
21°C 17%
20°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Aug 25, 2026
18°C or below
$23 Vol.
2%
19°C
$0 Vol.
12%
20°C
$0 Vol.
14%
21°C
$180 Vol.
17%
22°C
$38 Vol.
32%
23°C
$170 Vol.
25%
24°C
$249 Vol.
5%
25°C
$35 Vol.
5%
26°C
$0 Vol.
7%
27°C
$0 Vol.
2%
28°C or higher
$31 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecasts from Brazil’s CPTEC and INMET place São Paulo’s August 25 maximum near the climatological average of 22–23 °C, consistent with the market’s tight clustering around those two outcomes. A stable subtropical high and limited frontal activity support modest daytime warming under partly cloudy skies, while any increase in low-level moisture or earlier sea-breeze onset could cap readings at 22 °C. Conversely, clearer skies and slightly stronger northerly flow would favor the 23 °C threshold. Model spread in the final 24-hour guidance and local urban heat-island variability keep the two leading contracts closely matched, with resolution hinging on the official INMET station reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 8:55 PM ET
Volume
$726End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecasts from Brazil’s CPTEC and INMET place São Paulo’s August 25 maximum near the climatological average of 22–23 °C, consistent with the market’s tight clustering around those two outcomes. A stable subtropical high and limited frontal activity support modest daytime warming under partly cloudy skies, while any increase in low-level moisture or earlier sea-breeze onset could cap readings at 22 °C. Conversely, clearer skies and slightly stronger northerly flow would favor the 23 °C threshold. Model spread in the final 24-hour guidance and local urban heat-island variability keep the two leading contracts closely matched, with resolution hinging on the official INMET station reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$726End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 8:55 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecasts from Brazil’s CPTEC and INMET place São Paulo’s August 25 maximum near the climatological average of 22–23 °C, consistent with the market’s tight clustering around those two outcomes. A stable subtropical high and limited frontal activity support modest daytime warming under partly cloudy skies, while any increase in low-level moisture or earlier sea-breeze onset could cap readings at 22 °C. Conversely, clearer skies and slightly stronger northerly flow would favor the 23 °C threshold. Model spread in the final 24-hour guidance and local urban heat-island variability keep the two leading contracts closely matched, with resolution hinging on the official INMET station reading.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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