Trader consensus in this market centers on a highest temperature of 74–75°F (41.5% implied probability) because official National Weather Service and NOAA forecasts for San Francisco on August 1, 2026, project an afternoon high in the low-to-mid 70s under typical summer marine-layer influence. The cold California Current and persistent onshore flow suppress extreme warming, keeping daily highs near the long-term August average of 68–70°F while allowing modest afternoon heating when skies clear. Recent model runs show limited warming potential from weak high pressure but no heat-wave setup, supporting the tight clustering around 72–77°F bins. Higher outcomes above 78°F remain low-probability given historical rarity and ongoing coastal moderation, with resolution hinging on the official high reported at San Francisco International Airport.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月1日旧金山气温最高？
8月1日旧金山气温最高？
74-75°F 42%
72-73°F 27%
76-77°F 17%
70-71°F 12%
最新
最新
2026-08-01
63°F或以下
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
3%
70-71°F
12%
72-73°F
27%
74-75°F
42%
76-77°F
17%
78-79°F
5%
80-81°F
<1%
82°F或更高
<1%
74-75°F 42%
72-73°F 27%
76-77°F 17%
70-71°F 12%
最新
最新
2026-08-01
63°F或以下
$1,026 交易量
<1%
64-65°F
$259 交易量
<1%
66-67°F
$240 交易量
<1%
68-69°F
$373 交易量
3%
70-71°F
$1,185 交易量
12%
72-73°F
$782 交易量
27%
74-75°F
$1,057 交易量
42%
76-77°F
$1,000 交易量
17%
78-79°F
$235 交易量
5%
80-81°F
$1,168 交易量
<1%
82°F或更高
$471 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus in this market centers on a highest temperature of 74–75°F (41.5% implied probability) because official National Weather Service and NOAA forecasts for San Francisco on August 1, 2026, project an afternoon high in the low-to-mid 70s under typical summer marine-layer influence. The cold California Current and persistent onshore flow suppress extreme warming, keeping daily highs near the long-term August average of 68–70°F while allowing modest afternoon heating when skies clear. Recent model runs show limited warming potential from weak high pressure but no heat-wave setup, supporting the tight clustering around 72–77°F bins. Higher outcomes above 78°F remain low-probability given historical rarity and ongoing coastal moderation, with resolution hinging on the official high reported at San Francisco International Airport.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jul 30, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
交易量
$7,797结束日期
2026-08-01市场开放时间
Jul 30, 2026, 9:03 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus in this market centers on a highest temperature of 74–75°F (41.5% implied probability) because official National Weather Service and NOAA forecasts for San Francisco on August 1, 2026, project an afternoon high in the low-to-mid 70s under typical summer marine-layer influence. The cold California Current and persistent onshore flow suppress extreme warming, keeping daily highs near the long-term August average of 68–70°F while allowing modest afternoon heating when skies clear. Recent model runs show limited warming potential from weak high pressure but no heat-wave setup, supporting the tight clustering around 72–77°F bins. Higher outcomes above 78°F remain low-probability given historical rarity and ongoing coastal moderation, with resolution hinging on the official high reported at San Francisco International Airport.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$7,797结束日期
2026-08-01市场开放时间
Jul 30, 2026, 9:03 PM ETTrader consensus in this market centers on a highest temperature of 74–75°F (41.5% implied probability) because official National Weather Service and NOAA forecasts for San Francisco on August 1, 2026, project an afternoon high in the low-to-mid 70s under typical summer marine-layer influence. The cold California Current and persistent onshore flow suppress extreme warming, keeping daily highs near the long-term August average of 68–70°F while allowing modest afternoon heating when skies clear. Recent model runs show limited warming potential from weak high pressure but no heat-wave setup, supporting the tight clustering around 72–77°F bins. Higher outcomes above 78°F remain low-probability given historical rarity and ongoing coastal moderation, with resolution hinging on the official high reported at San Francisco International Airport.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题