Recent forecasts from meteorological agencies and models place Beijing's August 1 maximum near 33°C under southerly flow and lingering late-July humidity across northern China, consistent with early-August climatology of 31–32°C averages. Persistent high pressure supports modest warming, while urban heat-island effects and elevated dew points could nudge readings into the mid-30s unless scattered thunderstorms provide localized cooling. Model consensus shows a narrow spread around these values, with limited upside risk from stronger subsidence or downslope winds. Trader consensus reflected in the 51.5% implied probability on 36°C and 34.5% on 35°C aligns with this evidence-based range, incorporating both official guidance and historical precedent for occasional early-August peaks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月1日北京气温最高？
8月1日北京气温最高？
36°C 51%
35°C 33%
37°C 13%
38°C or higher 5.0%
$39,141 交易量
$39,141 交易量
2026-08-01
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
4%
35°C
33%
36°C
51%
37°C
13%
38°C or higher
5%
36°C 51%
35°C 33%
37°C 13%
38°C or higher 5.0%
$39,141 交易量
$39,141 交易量
2026-08-01
28°C or below
$1,381 交易量
<1%
29°C
$3,225 交易量
<1%
30°C
$4,008 交易量
<1%
31°C
$3,364 交易量
<1%
32°C
$7,813 交易量
<1%
33°C
$4,602 交易量
<1%
34°C
$3,225 交易量
4%
35°C
$2,272 交易量
33%
36°C
$5,295 交易量
51%
37°C
$2,629 交易量
13%
38°C or higher
$1,327 交易量
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological agencies and models place Beijing's August 1 maximum near 33°C under southerly flow and lingering late-July humidity across northern China, consistent with early-August climatology of 31–32°C averages. Persistent high pressure supports modest warming, while urban heat-island effects and elevated dew points could nudge readings into the mid-30s unless scattered thunderstorms provide localized cooling. Model consensus shows a narrow spread around these values, with limited upside risk from stronger subsidence or downslope winds. Trader consensus reflected in the 51.5% implied probability on 36°C and 34.5% on 35°C aligns with this evidence-based range, incorporating both official guidance and historical precedent for occasional early-August peaks.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jul 30, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
交易量
$39,141结束日期
2026-08-01市场开放时间
Jul 30, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological agencies and models place Beijing's August 1 maximum near 33°C under southerly flow and lingering late-July humidity across northern China, consistent with early-August climatology of 31–32°C averages. Persistent high pressure supports modest warming, while urban heat-island effects and elevated dew points could nudge readings into the mid-30s unless scattered thunderstorms provide localized cooling. Model consensus shows a narrow spread around these values, with limited upside risk from stronger subsidence or downslope winds. Trader consensus reflected in the 51.5% implied probability on 36°C and 34.5% on 35°C aligns with this evidence-based range, incorporating both official guidance and historical precedent for occasional early-August peaks.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$39,141结束日期
2026-08-01市场开放时间
Jul 30, 2026, 12:03 AM ETRecent forecasts from meteorological agencies and models place Beijing's August 1 maximum near 33°C under southerly flow and lingering late-July humidity across northern China, consistent with early-August climatology of 31–32°C averages. Persistent high pressure supports modest warming, while urban heat-island effects and elevated dew points could nudge readings into the mid-30s unless scattered thunderstorms provide localized cooling. Model consensus shows a narrow spread around these values, with limited upside risk from stronger subsidence or downslope winds. Trader consensus reflected in the 51.5% implied probability on 36°C and 34.5% on 35°C aligns with this evidence-based range, incorporating both official guidance and historical precedent for occasional early-August peaks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题